Forecast Cut on Softer Price Trends
CGS International has revised Malaysia’s 2025 inflation forecast to 1.6%, down from its earlier 2% projection. The adjustment follows August’s 1.3% year-on-year CPI increase, which was in line with expectations.
Limited Impact from Fuel Price Adjustment
The brokerage expects muted price pressure from the RON95 fuel price adjustment effective September 30, given the generous 300-litre monthly quota per consumer. While this limits the inflation impact for households, CGS noted that businesses and high-volume fuel users may face higher costs if excluded from subsidy reforms.
The firm estimates that partial fuel-cost pass-through could add 5–10 basis points to the CPI in October.
Consumer Offset Expected
On the upside, consumers benefiting from the new RON95 pump price of RM1.99 per litre could provide a larger offset, easing overall inflationary pressures. CGS highlighted that this downward effect from cheaper fuel for the general public may outweigh cost pressures from subsidy rationalisation.
Outlook
The house expects inflation to remain contained in the coming months, keeping price stability intact and limiting the drag on consumer spending.
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