KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 5 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia closed lower on Friday amid mixed regional market performance as investors turned cautious over a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and upcoming US economic data that may influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision next week. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) pared most earlier losses to settle 4.55 points easier, or 0.28 per cent, to 1,616.52 from Thursday’s close of 1,621.07. The benchmark index, which opened 0.37 of-a-point lower at 1,620.70, moved between 1,609.67 and 1,621.25 throughout the day. The broader market was negative, with decliners outpacing advancers 604 to 439. A total of 550 counters were unchanged, 1,151 untraded, and 18 suspended. Turnover declined to 3.17 billion units worth RM2.24 billion from 4.48 billion units worth RM2.75 billion yesterday. Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice-presiden...
Market Resilience Meets Fresh Caution
U.S. equities have staged one of their strongest rallies since the 1950s, adding nearly US$15 trillion in market value since April. The S&P 500 has surged 33%, notched 28 record highs in 2025, and is on track for its best September in more than a decade.
But momentum is showing early signs of fatigue. The benchmark slipped for three straight sessions last week — its longest losing streak in a month — before eking out a rebound Friday. Since the Fed’s rate cut on Sept. 17, the S&P 500 is up less than 1%, with weakness spreading beyond Big Tech to consumer, healthcare, and materials stocks.
Tariffs, Data, and the Fed in Focus
President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on imported trucks, drugs, and furniture add another layer of uncertainty just as Q3 earnings season begins Oct. 14 with JPMorgan Chase. Markets are already pricing in 8% earnings growth for the quarter — levels seen only twice in the past 30 years, both ahead of major selloffs (1999 and 2021).
The Fed’s next policy meeting on Oct. 29 looms large. Strong consumer data last week muddied the case for deeper rate cuts, while a potential U.S. government shutdown from Oct. 1 could delay key reports such as payrolls. Traders see a 90% chance of a Fed cut in October and a 65% chance of another in December, but stronger data could push those odds lower.
October’s Historic Turbulence
October carries a reputation as Wall Street’s most volatile month. Since WWII, swings in the S&P 500 during October have been 33% larger than the average month, according to CFRA. Factors such as window dressing by mutual funds often amplify market moves.
Despite that backdrop, positioning data suggests investors are betting more on upside than downside protection. The VIX sits below 16, and demand for call options is outpacing puts. Analysts warn this leaves markets vulnerable to a volatility spike if an unexpected shock hits.
Veteran Views: Risks and Resilience
RaeAnn Mitrione (Callan Family Office): Stretched valuations make a pullback likely.
Citi Research: Aggressive profit growth expectations are already priced in, raising the risk of disappointment.
Andrew Thrasher (Financial Enhancement Group): Lack of hedging could magnify volatility if sentiment shifts.
Ed Yardeni (Yardeni Research): Still bullish, forecasting the S&P 500 at 6,800 by year-end, but says a short-term correction would be “healthy.”
Investor takeaway: After a historic rally, U.S. stocks face a tricky October with earnings season, Fed policy, tariffs, and shutdown risks all colliding. While the long-term bull case remains intact, history suggests investors should brace for higher volatility and possible short-term pullbacks before year-end strength resumes.
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