MONEY MASTER

Gold prices rose on Friday, extending their monthly winning streak as  bargain hunters  stepped in and the  US Federal Reserve’s rate cut  boosted demand for non-yielding assets, even as a stronger dollar capped gains. Market Snapshot Spot gold:  US$4,034/oz (+0.3%) US gold futures (Dec):  US$3,955/oz (–1.1%) Monthly gain:  +4.5% (third straight) The rally puts gold on track for its  best three-month stretch this year , supported by lower yields and sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Fed Policy and Rate Outlook The Fed cut its  benchmark rate by 25 basis points  this week to a range of  3.75%–4.00% , marking its  second cut of 2025 . While the move supported bullion,  Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks  tempered expectations of another reduction in December. According to the  CME FedWatch Tool , traders now see a  74.8% chance  of a further 25 bps cut in Decem...

  Key Forecasts Policy Rate : Riksbank expected to  cut 50bps this year to 1.5% by November  (vs. previous forecast of 1.75%). Growth Outlook : 2025 GDP revised down to  1.0%  (from 1.5% prior). Growth seen accelerating to  2.3% in 2026 , easing to  2.2% in 2027 . Unemployment : Projected to decline gradually from  8.7% (2025)  →  7.9% (2027) . Macro Context Exports hit : US tariff hikes weighing on Swedish exporters like  Volvo Cars , delaying recovery momentum. Riksbank signal : Central bank has already hinted a cut from the current  2.0% rate  before year-end remains “on the table.” Policy support needed : Swedbank stresses that stable growth requires both monetary and fiscal stimulus. Rate Path Outlook 2025 : Cut to  1.5% by Nov . 2026 : Rate held steady at  1.5% . 2027 : Modest hike back to  1.75%  as economy stabilizes. Investor Takeaway Bonds : Lower rate path supportive for Swedish fixed income,...

The  Federal Reserve sees rising risks of persistent inflation , with  Trump’s sweeping tariffs  a major concern highlighted in the minutes of the latest policy meeting. What the Fed Said: Tariffs were mentioned 18 times  in the March 19–20 FOMC meeting minutes, up from just once in January. Officials held rates steady at  4.25%–4.50%  and signaled  three rate cuts by year-end , but stressed  a “wait-and-see” approach  amid uncertainty. Key worry:  “Inflationary effects may be more persistent than projected.” What's Driving Concern: Trump’s tariff policies , especially the  10% global baseline tariff  and steeper “reciprocal” tariffs, are viewed as  potential inflation accelerators . Market volatility  and  tightening financial conditions  are also seen as risks that could amplify economic shocks. Business uncertainty  is rising, as companies struggle to navigate unexpected tariff expansions. Mixed Econ...