Memory chipmakers are moving in sync on price increases as AI demand stretches supply across both training and inference workloads.
Market Snapshot
Samsung to raise LPDDR4X/LPDDR5/5X prices by 15%–30% in 4Q; eMMC/UFS up 5%–10%.
Micron (MU) reportedly planning 20%–30% hikes on DDR4/DDR5.
Capacity shift: DDR4 supply could drop to 20% of current levels by 2026.
AI pull-through: Tightness expected in both DRAM and NAND, with the up-cycle possibly lasting into 1H26.
HDD strain pushing faster SSD adoption; QLC SSD shipments could surge in 2026.
What’s Driving the Price Hikes
Capacity pivots: Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are reallocating production toward DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), accelerating DDR4 phase-out.
AI demand: As workloads shift from training to inference and the edge, demand for both high-capacity DRAM and NAND is tightening.
Industry Outlook
Local reports suggest the pricing up-cycle may extend through year-end and into the first half of 2026.
DDR4’s shrinking supply base means prices are likely to stay firm despite demand shifts.
Second-Order Effects
HDD under strain: Nearline HDD lead times are nearing one year, forcing suppliers to push nearline SSD development.
SSD opportunity: Price gap between HDD and SSD may narrow from ~4–5x to ~3x, improving adoption.
QLC inflection: With AI data volumes swelling, high-capacity QLC SSD shipments could accelerate in 2026, making flash memory a bigger complement to GPUs.
Key Takeaway
Samsung’s move to hike memory prices adds momentum to an industry-wide up-cycle already fueled by Micron and SK hynix. AI demand is tightening supply across DRAM and NAND, while HDD shortages create tailwinds for SSD adoption. Investors will get a near-term read when Micron reports earnings this week.
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