Key Takeaways
Stephen Miran sworn in as Fed governor, joining from Trump’s economic team.
Lisa Cook remains in place after court blocks Trump’s attempt to fire her.
Fed expected to cut rates 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25%; projections and Powell’s press conference closely watched.
Investors pricing in three cuts for 2025, versus Fed’s earlier signal of two.
Political tension over Fed independence lingers, but market reaction muted so far.
What Happened
The Fed began its two-day policy meeting under unusual circumstances: Stephen Miran, on leave from Trump’s White House, officially joined the Board of Governors, while Lisa Cook secured a temporary legal victory allowing her to remain after Trump sought to oust her.
Markets are largely brushing aside the personnel drama, focusing instead on today’s rate decision and updated economic projections. Powell’s press conference will be crucial in shaping expectations around the pace of cuts.
Market Context
Data shows stronger import prices, resilient consumer spending, and steady industrial output, complicating the Fed’s easing path.
Investors expect 3 cuts this year; the Fed’s June projection signaled only 2.
Bond yields remain elevated on fiscal concerns, while gold trades near record highs as investors hedge policy and political risks.
Why It Matters for Investors
Fed independence remains under pressure, but near-term policy direction hinges more on inflation and growth data than politics.
Watch Miran’s projections: if he aligns with Trump’s call for ultra-low rates, it could signal a shift in longer-term Fed direction.
A more dovish Fed outlook would weigh on the USD, support gold, and boost rate-sensitive assets like REITs and growth equities.
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