Key Takeaways
NODX slump: Fell 11.3% YoY in August, missing consensus forecast of +1%.
Electronics: Down 6.5%, led by disk media (-28.1%), integrated circuits (-7.4%), and PC parts (-36.9%).
Non-electronics: Down 13%, with steep falls in food preparations (-51.4%) and petrochemicals (-23.2%).
Markets hit: Exports to US (-28.8%), China, and Indonesia fell sharply; gains seen in EU, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Bright spot: Non-oil re-exports +12.3%, with electronics re-exports up 21.8% on demand for PCs, ICs, and telecoms equipment.
Outlook: Authorities expect growth to slow in 2H25 as tariff headwinds bite, despite front-loading earlier in the year.
Breakdown of August Trade Data
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) registered their sharpest fall in over a year, reflecting broad-based weakness in both electronics and non-electronics shipments. Electronics exports fell on a high 2024 base, while non-electronics suffered from steep declines in specialised machinery (-29.1%), food (-51.4%), and petrochemicals (-23.2%).
Trade partners saw mixed results:
Weakness: US (-28.8% YoY), Indonesia, China.
Resilience: EU, Taiwan, South Korea.
Despite tariff disadvantages — Singapore faces a 10% US tariff despite an FTA — re-exports provided some relief, climbing double-digits for a second straight month.
Macro Implications
Global headwinds: The steep US-bound decline reflects the impact of Trump-era tariffs, with front-loaded shipments earlier this year giving way to softer demand.
Domestic warning: EnterpriseSG cautioned in August that export momentum could slow in 2H25, a trend now showing in the data.
Policy watch: Authorities still forecast NODX growth of +1% to +3% in 2025, but risks are tilted to the downside amid weak external demand and tariff uncertainties.
Investor View
For investors, the August trade data underscores continued fragility in Singapore’s export engine, particularly electronics, even as re-exports provide some offset. The weak print raises questions about the durability of the H1 rebound and suggests that Singapore’s growth in H2 will likely moderate alongside global demand softening.
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