MONEY MASTER

The past week delivered a powerful mix of  trade tension, slowing growth, rising inflation, and recession warnings , keeping investors on edge. Here’s what mattered most. 1️⃣ Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Faces Pushback President  Donald Trump  announced a new  10% global tariff , later raised to  15% , after the  Supreme Court of the United States  ruled that trade authority rests with Congress — not the executive branch. The move: Drew opposition from Republican lawmakers Increased legal uncertainty Added to market volatility Policy unpredictability is now a key market risk.  2️⃣ Recession Indicator Flashes Warning US heavy truck sales — a leading economic indicator — are weakening. When fleets expect strong freight demand, they order trucks. When confidence drops, capital spending freezes. The 2025 retreat suggests: Businesses are cautious Forward demand expectations are softening   Early-cycle capital spending is slowing — often a recession p...

Amid growing global trade tensions,  Singapore has narrowly dodged a technical recession , thanks to a  pre-tariff export rush  and a rebound in construction. Q2 GDP  grew  +1.4% quarter-on-quarter , beating estimates of 0.8% and reversing Q1’s -0.5% contraction. On a  year-on-year basis , growth came in at  +4.3% , outperforming the median forecast of 3.6%. What Drove the Rebound? Front-Loaded Exports Before Aug 1 Tariffs Manufacturing grew slightly at  +0.1% , but was driven by firms rushing to ship out goods before  US tariffs kick in . Services sectors expanded  +1.4% QoQ  and  +4.8% YoY , also linked to trade-related activity and logistics. Public Sector Construction Boom Construction rebounded  +4.4% QoQ  after a -1.8% dip in Q1, helping support domestic demand. “The rebound is welcome, but headwinds are coming,” said Selena Ling, OCBC’s research head. “The key concern is post-August — once the tariff shield dro...

President Donald Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs officially kicked in early Wednesday, sending shockwaves through global markets and escalating tensions in what’s shaping up to be the most aggressive trade war in decades. Among the harshest measures: a  104% tariff on Chinese goods , nearly double the rate announced last week. The fallout has been swift — U.S. and global stocks are tumbling, safe-haven bonds are being sold off in a panic, and fears of a global recession are mounting. The  S&P 500  has now endured its  deepest drop since its inception in the 1950s , nearing official bear market territory. Markets Reel, Bonds Buckle The turmoil has even spread to U.S. Treasury bonds, once considered the safest of assets, with  forced selling triggering liquidity concerns . Stocks in Europe and much of Asia continued their descent, while China’s market found some footing thanks to  government support . Beijing has vowed to retaliate. “China will neve...

The Trump administration is preparing a sweeping tariff package that may mark the most aggressive protectionist turn in US history since the 1930s. Markets are watching closely as risks of recession, inflation, and global retaliation mount. Policy Overview President Trump is poised to unveil a new round of  “reciprocal tariffs” , possibly as soon as Wednesday, which would target countries with trade barriers or tax structures deemed unfair to US exporters. Tariffs could raise  average US import duties by up to 28 percentage points  — the most since the 1800s. The plan would replace the US’s long-held  multilateral trade commitments  under GATT/WTO with  bilateral arrangements . Key trading partners including  Europe, China, Canada, and Southeast Asia  are expected to be affected. Economic Impact Forecasts Bloomberg Economics  projects a  4% hit to US GDP  over 2–3 years under a maximalist scenario— more than $1 trillion in output ...

  Key Takeaways: Rate Adjustments & AI Outlook:  The Federal Reserve’s projected interest rate adjustments are likely to have a limited effect on equity markets in the short term. While some may fear that higher rates will constrain growth, the real driver of returns, particularly in the U.S., will be advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), which continues to be viewed as a powerful growth engine. Tariffs and Economic Resilience:  The biggest risk to the market is not a recession, but rather long-term decisions regarding infrastructure and fiscal policies that could reduce structural growth in the U.S. Even with rising tariffs, the economy has shown resilience, and the focus should be on how these decisions impact long-term growth rates, rather than short-term market dips. China vs. U.S. in AI Development:  Both the U.S. and China stand to benefit from the AI revolution, but the U.S. is seen as having a more favorable macro environment, making it the strong...

Asian equities  faced downward pressure on Friday morning after  US stocks  dropped past a key milestone, sending major indices into  correction territory . The  S&P 500  fell  1.4%  to a six-month low, marking a  10% correction , the third straight week of losses. Similarly, the  Nasdaq 100  also slipped by  1.9% , while  Treasuries  saw a rally. Key Market Movements: US stocks : The S&P 500’s correction led to a loss of  $5 trillion  from the benchmark's value, deepening losses in  megacap tech stocks  and  junk bonds . An  $8 billion ETF  tracking  junk bonds  saw a significant loss, and  Bitcoin  also saw a dip before stabilizing in Asia. US tariffs :  President Trump  intensified his  trade war  rhetoric, threatening a  200% tariff  on  European wine and champagne . This was part of broader concerns over escalating t...

President Donald Trump  has dismissed the recent  market selloff , stating that it’s part of the natural market cycle and that both ups and downs are expected. Despite the downturn, Trump is  optimistic about the U.S. economy , insisting that the country is on the path to  revitalization . Key Points: Market Cycles : Trump acknowledged the market fluctuations but stressed that they are normal, with markets going  up and down . He believes the focus should be on rebuilding the country. Rebuilding U.S. Industry : Trump highlighted the importance of  rebuilding American factories  and  creating jobs , criticizing the state of many old factories and the lack of utilization of existing resources. Economic Policy : Trump emphasized that the key to the country’s economic future lies in  taxing policies  and  incentives . He’s working to bring incentives back to the U.S., encouraging businesses to invest in the country rather than offshore ...

Global Market Overview: Global markets took a major hit with all major indices in the red: DJIA:  -2.08% S&P 500:  -2.69% Nasdaq:  -4.00% Key Takeaways: Recession fears  triggered a sell-off in technology stocks, with  Tesla  leading the way, dropping 15.43%. In contrast, other major tech stocks like the  Magnificent Seven  saw declines between 2-5%. U.S. job market  data suggests job losses are likely to accelerate, which could trigger further layoffs and tighter job markets. Oil and stock markets  faced additional pressure from trade tariffs imposed on exports from Mexico, China, and Canada, which also dampened investor sentiment. US Treasury Yields: The  10-year Treasury yield  dropped to  4.16% , reflecting a cautious market as bond futures saw a significant sell-off, following predictions of possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings. Malaysia Market Snapshot: MYR:  Closed at...

Malaysia Market Ends Lower Amid Regional Caution Palm Oil Exports Drop 16.27% in February Stocks to Watch: CAPITALA, TDM, OASIS Wall Street in Turmoil: Recession Fears Shake Global Markets US markets plunged as investors reacted to escalating trade tensions under President Trump’s administration. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, while the Nasdaq suffered its worst single-day loss since 2022, falling 4%. President Trump acknowledged the economic uncertainties in a Fox News interview, stating, "There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big." Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed now projects a 2.4% GDP contraction for Q1, signaling a potential recession risk. Tech Stocks Take a Hit The sell-off was particularly severe for the tech sector, with the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks leading the decline. Tesla fell 15.4%, the biggest drop among the group. Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Alphabet also saw notable losses. With investor sentiment at ...

Bond investors are adopting defensive positions as uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts continues to mount. A combination of persistent inflation and weaker-than-expected labor market data has led traders to scale back expectations for further Fed easing in 2024. This shift drove Treasury yields to their highest levels since July, while volatility in the bond market , as measured by the ICE BofA Move Index , climbed to its highest point since January. Amid this uncertainty, asset managers such as BlackRock Inc. , Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) , and UBS Global Wealth Management are recommending that investors focus on five-year bonds , which offer a balance between risk and reward. Solita Marcelli , chief investment officer at UBS Global, suggests positioning portfolios in medium-term Treasuries and investment-grade corporate securities to hedge against potential economic shocks and capitalize on durable income opportunities. Investors have ...

  Australia's millennial households , those aged 29 to 43, have seen the steepest decline in real average disposable incomes over the past two years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc , leading to a downgrade in economic growth estimates for the country. Real incomes for millennial households have dropped by 9.4% during this period, marking the largest decline among any age group, Goldman estimates. Inflation, higher taxes, and rising interest rates have disproportionately impacted this cohort, which tends to spend heavily on discretionary items , said economist William Nixon in a note to clients on Friday. Nixon pointed out that younger and middle-aged households face major financial headwinds , compounding the effects of inflation that have affected all age groups. This decline in income is expected to result in a more gradual recovery in consumption than previously estimated, with the government's recent tax cuts having a limited impact . Goldman has revised its agg...

Global markets faced another wave of volatility on Tuesday, driven by growing concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and a historically weak September for stocks. This sell-off has eroded the brief optimism that potential U.S. interest rate cuts would sustain growth, leaving investors worried about another round of currency instability. Key Takeaways: Market Volatility Driven by Recession Fears : After a brief recovery from August's sell-off, investors have shifted their focus from anticipated rate cuts to recession fears. The S&P 500 fell over 2%, Japan's Topix dropped 3.7%, and European stocks also declined. The VIX, a measure of expected U.S. equity volatility, surged, reflecting heightened market anxiety. The trigger was weak U.S. manufacturing data and concerns about a repeat of disappointing U.S. jobs data later this week. Impact on Tech and Equity Markets : High-valuation tech stocks, including Nvidia, which fell 9.5%, and ASML Holdings, which dropped around 5%, wer...

  Financial markets are increasingly reflecting higher chances of a U.S. recession, according to models from Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. This shift comes in the wake of recent market volatility that briefly rattled Wall Street last week. Key Highlights: Rising Recession Probability: Goldman Sachs’ models now assign a 41% probability of a U.S. recession, up from 29% in April. This increase is driven by signals from the bond market and the lagging performance of economically sensitive stocks. Similarly, JPMorgan’s models estimate a 31% chance of a recession, rising from 20% at the end of March, largely due to the sharp repricing of U.S. Treasuries. Market Disconnection: JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted a disconnect between U.S. credit and equity markets versus rate markets. While equity markets are only pricing in a one-in-five chance of a recession, rate markets are reflecting much higher odds, with Goldman’s models indicating a 92% chance...

  US Federal Reserve policymakers have indicated that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon to prevent an economic downturn, but they pushed back against the idea that the economy is headed into a recession following weaker-than-expected July jobs data. Key Points from the Fed's Statements Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President: Economic Outlook: Daly stated that while the July jobs report showed some weaknesses, it leaves "a little more room for confidence that we're slowing but not falling off a cliff." She emphasized that it is crucial to avoid a significant downturn in the labor market. Policy Adjustment: Daly mentioned that the Fed is open to adjusting the policy rate in upcoming meetings based on incoming economic data, highlighting the importance of being forward-looking to ensure economic stability. Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President: Market Volatility: Goolsbee cautioned against overreacting to the recent global market sell-off, attributing it partl...

  US bank stocks experienced a significant decline on Monday as mounting recession fears prompted investors to move away from the banking sector, which is closely tied to the economic health, and towards safer assets. Key Market Movements S&P 500 Banks Index: Fell 2.4% , tracking a basket of large-cap bank stocks. KBW Regional Banking Index: Dropped 2.8% . Major Bank Declines: Citigroup: Fell 3.4% , leading losses among big banks. JPMorgan Chase: Declined 2% . Bank of America: Dropped nearly 2.5% . Goldman Sachs: Fell 2.5% . Factors Contributing to the Decline Recession Concerns: Fears of a potential recession have heightened following weak economic data, leading to concerns about credit losses due to higher unemployment and reduced loan demand. Jason Goldberg, banking analyst at Barclays, noted that the economy might be slowing more than anticipated, impacting loan growth, income growth, and credit quality. Interest Rate Impact: The banking sector has been under pressure ...

It seems that more and more countries are slipping into recession. Euro zone, Singapore and now Japan. Here's what I have from theStar online:- Japan's economy slid into a recession for the first time since 2001, the government said Monday, as companies sharply cut back on spending in the third quarter amid the unfolding global financial crisis. The world's second-largest economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.4 percent in the July-September period after a declining an annualized 3.7 percent in the second quarter. That means Japan, along with the 15-nation euro-zone, is now technically in a recession, defined as two straight quarters of contraction. The result was worse than expected. Economists surveyed by Kyodo News agency had predicted an annualized 0.1 percent rise in the third quarter. Japan's Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano said following the data's release that "the economy is in a recessionary phase,'' according to Kyodo. But the worst may be y...