MONEY MASTER

Global oil markets are facing renewed disruption as  Saudi Arabia reduces crude shipments to key Asian buyers , highlighting the deepening impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on energy supply chains. Supply Cuts to China and India State producer  Saudi Aramco  is expected to ship  around 40 million barrels to China in April , down from  48 million barrels in February . Shipments to  India are also set to decline , with volumes estimated at  ~23 million barrels , compared with  25–28 million barrels previously . The reductions reflect  logistical disruptions and supply constraints  caused by escalating tensions in the region. Strait of Hormuz Disruption Drives Market Shock The near closure of the  Strait of Hormuz , a critical global oil transit route, has severely restricted flows from the Persian Gulf. In response, Saudi Arabia has rerouted some exports through its  Yanbu port on the Red Sea , but capacity remains limit...

Investor & Industry Impact Note India is preparing its most meaningful auto-market liberalisation in decades as part of a near-final  EU–India free trade agreement (FTA) . A sharp cut in car import tariffs will reshape competitive dynamics across  luxury, mass-market and EV segments , with clear winners and losers emerging. What’s Changing (Policy Snapshot) Import tariffs on EU-made cars cut to 40%  from as high as 110% Gradual reduction toward 10% over time Initial quota:  ~200,000 internal-combustion cars per year EVs excluded for first five years , then phased into similar cuts Deal announcement expected  imminently , subject to final ratification This is India’s biggest auto market opening to date. WINNERS European Automakers (Primary Beneficiaries) Volkswagen Mercedes-Benz BMW Renault Stellantis Why they win Ability to  import premium and niche models at far lower prices Can  test demand before committing capex  to local manufacturing Str...

US President  Donald Trump  said Indian Prime Minister  Narendra Modi  has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, marking a potential shift that could reshape global crude trade and intensify pressure on  Moscow’s energy revenues . India and China are currently the  two largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude , taking advantage of steep discounts since Western sanctions on Russia began in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine. “I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he (Modi) assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters. “That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing.” India Under Pressure to Pivot India’s Russian oil imports averaged  1.62 million barrels per day in September , about  one-third of its total oil imports . For months, New Delhi defended the purchases as essential for  energy security , but the latest development suggests a policy turnaround. Trump recent...

President Donald Trump announced a  25% tariff on India’s exports to the U.S. starting Aug. 1 , escalating trade tensions and warning of further penalties over New Delhi’s energy and military ties with Russia. Key Points: Trump called India’s tariffs “among the highest in the world” and criticised its  non-monetary trade barriers . He also targeted India’s heavy reliance on Russian oil and weapons, saying the country is “Russia’s largest buyer of energy along with China.” Trump hinted at an additional penalty tied to India’s purchases from Moscow. Market Reaction: Indian rupee  dropped  0.8% to 87.87 per dollar  in offshore trading, hitting a five-month low. Nifty 50 futures  erased gains and fell as much as  0.5% . Trade Talks in Limbo: India had been negotiating a trade deal with the U.S. after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February White House visit. Talks stalled in recent weeks over agriculture and tariff issues, with New Delhi toughening its sta...

Trump wants cuts. Markets want clarity. The Fed says: not so fast. While central banks around the globe are  slashing interest rates  in response to tariff turmoil and cooling inflation, the  Federal Reserve remains cautious  — resisting political pressure from President Trump to loosen monetary policy. Key Takeaways from Bloomberg’s Global Rate Watch : 🔹  Fed (US): ➡ Current: 4.5% | Forecast: 4.25% ➡  One rate cut expected —possibly in Q4. ➡ Trump wants action, but policymakers are wary of inflation risks from tariffs. 🔹  ECB (Europe): ➡ Forecasts two more cuts this year to 1.5%. ➡ Tariff threats on pharma exports weigh on eurozone growth. 🔹 BOJ (Japan): ➡ Could raise rates  slightly  amid inflation and wage growth, but politics may delay action. 🔹  BOE (UK): ➡ Expected to cut rates twice by year-end as job markets weaken and inflation stays sticky. 🔹  BOC (Canada): ➡ Two rate cuts likely this year due to softening growth. ...

India’s quick-commerce champions are  riding a bullish wave , with  Swiggy and Eternal Ltd.  outpacing benchmarks and regional peers over the past month, supported by  strengthening fundamentals, first-mover advantages, and improving investor sentiment . Stock Scorecard (Past 30 Days): Swiggy Ltd.  +20% 🚀 Eternal Ltd.  +11% Nifty 100  < trailing behind China’s Meituan & JD.com  ↓ $70B market cap loss since March What’s Fueling the Surge? Profitability Now in Sight After aggressive expansion and deep discounting, key players like  Swiggy’s Instamart  and  Eternal’s Blinkit  are now scaling back on costs and zeroing in on monetization. Analysts say losses may have  already peaked . First-Mover Advantage Still Intact Despite heavyweight entrants like Amazon and Flipkart,  incumbents control 88%  of India’s quick-commerce market, with dense networks of “dark stores” and optimized delivery logistics. Shift in ...

What’s Happening: Global investors are eyeing Chinese markets again, drawn by improving sentiment and policy optimism, while India’s stock market rally faces headwinds. Why the Shift: China showing signs of stabilization and renewed growth stimulus. Indian stocks trade near record valuations, with slowing earnings growth and cutbacks in government spending. Sectors to Watch: China:  Tech, materials, and cyclical names could benefit from capital inflows. India:  Strong IPO pipeline continues, but risks from tariff policy shifts and macro pressures remain. Money Master Take: Stay alert: capital flows can pivot quickly. Diversify across Asian markets and watch July’s policy signals and earnings season for clues on the next big trend.

Tech Watch: Nifty IT Rebounds, Bulls Take Charge Key Takeaways: Nifty IT Outperformance  – Indian tech stocks are delivering their best relative performance to Nifty 50 this year as the price ratio rebounds from a multi-year support level. June Quarter Earnings Tailwind  – Analysts expect a solid earnings season ahead for software exporters, with strong seasonal trends and improving fundamentals. Broader Market Boost  – FMCG margins are set to rise due to falling agri-inflation, while electricity futures add depth to India's evolving derivatives market. Indian tech stocks are once again grabbing attention, with the Nifty IT Index staging a sharp rebound against the broader Nifty 50. The ratio between the two has bounced off a key 1.4x support level, signaling further upside, according to JM Financial. This resurgence is underpinned by optimism around the upcoming June-quarter earnings. With seasonality working in their favor and cost bases stabilized, software exporters a...

India is preparing to impose a  temporary tax of up to 25%  on steel imports to counter  cheap Chinese steel flooding the market , according to government and industry sources. Key Developments: Safeguard Duty Proposal A  25% safeguard duty  is under consideration to protect domestic steelmakers. An investigation led by the  Directorate General of Trade Remedies  is expected to conclude within a month, paving the way for the tax implementation. Support for MSMEs Small manufacturers  (MSMEs) initially opposed the proposal but  dropped their objections  after receiving assurances of discounted steel prices. MSMEs  registered with the government will receive steel at  FOB (free on board) export prices , about  20% lower  than market rates. Industry Concerns Major Indian steel producers such as  JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India  have raised concerns about  unfair competition ...

India’s inflation surged to a 14-month high of 6.21% in October , surpassing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target ceiling, which likely cements the case for maintaining current interest rates. The consumer price index saw a significant increase from 5.49% in September, driven by a steep rise in food prices , which climbed 10.87% year-on-year, with vegetable prices spiking 42.18% . Excluding food and fuel, the core inflation measure also ticked up to 3.74%. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has expressed concerns over “upside risks to inflation” stemming from global commodity prices and geopolitical conflicts. He emphasized that any immediate rate cuts could be “very risky,” and the central bank remains committed to a neutral stance until inflation approaches its 4% target sustainably. The recent inflation figures also cast doubt on potential rate cuts at the RBI’s upcoming December policy meeting . Economists, including Sakshi Gupta from HDFC Bank , suggest that rate easing may be del...

India's financial crime agency plans to summon Amazon and Flipkart executives in its investigation of alleged foreign investment law violations , following recent raids on some sellers affiliated with these e-commerce giants. The Enforcement Directorate is examining evidence from the raids, which revealed potential violations of India's e-commerce regulations . Indian law prohibits foreign e-commerce companies from holding inventory directly, requiring them instead to operate as a marketplace for independent sellers. Amazon and Flipkart, with 32% and 24% market shares , respectively, in India’s growing $70 billion e-commerce market , are under scrutiny for allegedly exerting "end-to-end control" over inventory through select sellers, which contradicts Indian regulations. The investigation includes a five-year review of business data and seller relationships. Amazon’s former top seller, Appario , reportedly received special privileges, including discounted fees and...

Indian food delivery giant Swiggy has set a price range of 371 to 390 rupees per share for its highly anticipated US$1.35 billion (RM5.92 billion) domestic initial public offering (IPO) , according to a newspaper advertisement released on Wednesday. This IPO is set to be the second-largest in India this year, following Hyundai India’s US$3.3 billion IPO earlier in the month.

China has confirmed it reached an agreement with India regarding their disputed frontier , though details on whether the pact covers the entire border or only specific points of standoff remain unclear. The announcement follows ongoing tensions between the two countries, which escalated in 2020 after clashes in the Ladakh region of the Himalayas resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers . The confirmation from China comes after Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar revealed on Monday that the two countries had agreed on patrolling the border, marking a potential end to the military standoff. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian , highlighted that both sides have maintained close communication through diplomatic and military channels and confirmed that a solution has been reached. While China views the agreement positively , specific details about the implementation and scope of the pact were not provided. The deal is expected to ease...

Hyundai Motor India Ltd. is poised to begin trading in Mumbai on Tuesday after a $3.3 billion initial public offering (IPO) , marking India’s largest-ever IPO . The offering valued the Indian unit of South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. at approximately $19 billion , with the parent company selling a 17.5% stake in India’s second-largest carmaker. The IPO, although oversubscribed by more than two times , saw slower-than-expected demand during the book-building process, with strong institutional interest coming in on the last day of sale. However, retail investors only purchased about half of the shares reserved for them, possibly due to concerns about all proceeds going to the parent company and cooling demand in India’s auto industry. New listings in India have performed well, with the country’s IPOs rising by an average of 39% on their first day this year, according to Bloomberg data. However, Hyundai Motor India’s valuation poses a challenge, as it is five times more expensive th...

Hyundai India has kicked off its US$3.3 billion initial public offering (IPO) in Mumbai, marking India's largest-ever share sale and the world's second-largest IPO of 2024. This major deal reflects the ongoing strength of India's capital markets , which have seen 260 companies raise more than US$9 billion so far this year, surpassing the total raised in 2023, according to LSEG data. The IPO will see Hyundai Motor's South Korean parent company sell up to 17.5% of its stake in its wholly-owned Indian subsidiary, valuing Hyundai India at up to US$19 billion . This sale will account for about 40% of Hyundai Motor's market capitalization . Notably, no new shares will be issued as part of the offering. The share price is set between 1,865 to 1,960 rupees , with institutions bidding starting Monday and retail investors placing orders on Tuesday and Wednesday . The stock is scheduled to begin trading on Oct 22 in Mumbai, marking Hyundai's first listing outside ...

Indian sovereign bonds that were recently included in JPMorgan Chase & Co’s emerging-market bond index experienced their first weekly outflow since the inclusion in June. According to Clearing Corporation of India data, overseas investors sold 16.8 billion rupees (US$200 million) worth of Fully Accessible Route (FAR) bonds last week, marking the largest outflow since May 10. The outflow is modest when compared to the average weekly inflow of US$570 million since the index inclusion, according to Morgan Stanley. However, it underscores the impact of uncertain Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and elevated crude prices due to geopolitical tensions. Naveen Singh, head of trading at ICICI Securities, attributed the outflows to the unwinding of total return swap trades amid changes in Fed rate expectations and a pullback in US yields. Although India's recent inclusion in FTSE Russell and Bloomberg emerging market indexes from January 2025 is expected to have a lim...

 India’s new monetary policy committee (MPC) may be preparing the groundwork for an interest rate cut on Wednesday as global central banks shift towards easing, and growth in India's economy moderates. While most economists expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep its repo rate unchanged at 6.5% , several anticipate a switch to a neutral stance , a move that would pave the way for a potential rate cut by December. The meeting is the first under a new MPC following the appointment of three external members, who are expected to align with RBI’s current views, at least initially. Governor Shaktikanta Das has resisted rate cut calls due to concerns over high food prices and inflation staying above the 4% target . However, favorable monsoon rains and projections of a bumper harvest are boosting expectations of easing inflation, putting pressure on the RBI to follow global trends, particularly as the US Federal Reserve and other central banks begin to pivot. HSBC economists ...

As Indian equities continue to rise, investors are closely watching SEBI's upcoming board meeting , where the market regulator is expected to introduce stricter rules for retail investors trading in futures and options (F&O) . This move comes after a recent study revealed that nine out of ten traders lost money in the derivatives market, often due to competition with high-speed trading firms. If implemented, these measures could reshape the equity derivatives landscape, impacting stock exchanges, brokers, and traders. $109 Billion Boost to Power Transmission India has announced a $109 billion (9.2 trillion rupees) plan to enhance its transmission infrastructure by 2032, targeting a 33% increase in network capacity and doubling substation capacity. This massive investment will also include pumped storage projects for grid stabilization. Companies like ABB India , Siemens Ltd , GE T&D , Voltamp , Apar , KEC , and Kalpataru are expected to benefit significantly from this...

Global funds are pouring into Indian equities , marking a strong return to the US$5 trillion market as election-related uncertainties wane and Prime Minister Narendra Modi secures a third term. Foreign investors have made net purchases of US$8.5 billion this quarter, the highest since mid-2023, positioning India for continued inflows, especially with the Federal Reserve now cutting interest rates. As India's NSE Nifty 50 Index heads for its ninth consecutive annual gain , overseas funds are finding comfort in India's valuations, which, although high relative to emerging-market peers , reflect the nation's strong corporate performance and favorable economic conditions . HSBC Global Private Banking & Wealth's Chief Investment Officer, James Cheo , cited India’s growth story as more appealing than markets with "subdued" prospects. India's GDP growth of 6.7% in the last quarter far outpaced China's 4.7% , cementing its status as a major engin...

The Federal Reserve's anticipated shift to interest-rate cuts this week is expected to bolster emerging Asian market assets , potentially extending their recent lead over global favorites like Japan and chip stocks. Smaller Southeast Asian markets are likely to continue outperforming their larger counterparts, although a significant rise in the yen could introduce volatility into the Japanese market and high-performing chip stocks. The fear of an unwind in the yen carry trade could have global repercussions. Investors remain divided on whether the Fed will initiate its easing cycle with a standard 25 basis point cut or opt for a larger half-point reduction . A more substantial cut could raise concerns about the US economy's health, outweighing any positive stimulus effects. Key Market Expectations Watching the Yen The yen's trajectory is closely linked to expectations around Fed rate cuts. The currency surged past the 140 per dollar mark on Monday, reaching its stro...