MONEY MASTER

China’s steel market is not collapsing despite the property downturn. Instead, demand is stabilising at a lower level as manufacturing, exports and new energy sectors gradually replace construction-driven demand. This is not a demand collapse, it’s a structural shift from property to industrial and export-driven demand. What’s Really Happening The sharp drop in construction activity has clearly hurt steel demand: Property-related steel (like rebar) has fallen significantly Construction’s share of demand is shrinking But the broader market tells a different story: Total steel demand is only slightly below past peaks Manufacturing, shipbuilding and energy transition sectors are absorbing demand Exports are acting as a key buffer Instead of a sudden crash, the industry is entering a  long plateau . Why This Matters The market had expected a sharp collapse but reality is more gradual: Demand is declining slowly, not falling off a cliff China is shifting from construction-led growth to ...

The latest developments in oil markets point to a clear trend:  China is buying less crude , raising concerns about demand strength in the world’s largest energy importer. Chinese Refiners Cut Back on Purchases China’s independent refiners who the main buyers of Iranian crude are  reducing operating rates  as profitability weakens. Key pressures include: Negative refining margins Slower domestic fuel demand Ongoing  economic headwinds These factors are forcing refiners to  cut crude intake , leading to a visible drop in demand. Import Volumes Show Clear Decline The slowdown is reflected in trade flows: Iranian crude shipments to China dropped to  ~1.1 million barrels per day This is the  lowest level since early 2025 Given that these refiners typically account for  around 90% of Iran’s exports , the decline has a  significant impact on global oil demand . Rising Floating Storage Signals Oversupply With demand weakening, excess crude is buildi...

China is exploring a new financial frontier as it works on launching  AI token futures , signalling a deeper push into the global AI race and financial innovation. Summary China is developing a  futures market tied to AI tokens (compute usage) , offering companies a way to hedge rising AI costs — in contrast to the US focus on  GPU compute futures . What’s Happening The  Shanghai Futures Exchange  is in early-stage discussions to design  AI token futures contracts These tokens represent the  smallest unit of AI computation , essentially the “fuel” powering AI models The initiative is still  preliminary , with no clear timeline or regulatory approval yet Meanwhile, US exchanges like  CME Group  and  Intercontinental Exchange  are developing  compute power futures linked to GPU usage costs Why It Matters New asset class potential : AI tokens could become a tradable financial instrument Cost hedging tool : Helps AI firms mana...

Global investors are  rotating back into Chinese equities , with April inflows hitting their highest level in months as sentiment improves on the back of  AI-driven optimism and stabilising geopolitical concerns . Strong Foreign Inflows Signal Renewed Interest Foreign investors poured approximately  200 billion yuan (US$29 billion)  into mainland equities in April, which is the  largest inflow since January . The data suggests a  clear rebound in overseas appetite , following earlier outflows triggered by the Iran war. Proxy Data Highlights Capital Movement With limited official disclosure on direct flows, analysts rely on  cross-border investment balance data  to estimate foreign participation. This method strips out: Bond flows Trading link transactions Institutional reallocations Leaving a  reliable proxy for foreign equity inflows into China . AI Rally Drives Market Performance The rebound in flows coincided with a strong equity rally: CS...

China has signaled willingness to  extend its trade truce with the United States , offering markets a degree of stability while setting clear limits on future tariff escalation. Negotiations to Extend Trade Agreement Beijing confirmed that trade teams from China and the US will  negotiate an extension of the one-year agreement reached in late 2025. The deal, initially agreed in Kuala Lumpur and formalised at a summit in Busan, included: Suspension of certain tariffs Easing of  rare earth export restrictions Pause on  investigations into China’s shipbuilding sector The current arrangement is set to run until  November 2026 . China Sets Boundaries on Tariff Levels China indicated it is willing to  tolerate US tariffs , but only within limits: Acceptable tariff level:  ~30% ceiling Current effective rate:  ~21%  (after US court rulings) This stance signals  pragmatism from Beijing , while pushing back against attempts by the US to  rei...

China’s state-owned lenders delivered  muted earnings growth in 2025 , highlighting ongoing pressure from  policy-driven lending and shrinking interest margins . Profit Growth Slows Across Major Lenders Agricultural Bank of China  reported  net profit growth of 3.2% to 291 billion yuan , while  Bank of China  posted a weaker  2.2% increase . Similar trends were seen across peers, including  Industrial and Commercial Bank of China  and  China Construction Bank , reflecting  sector-wide earnings constraints . Despite the modest growth, total industry profits still reached  2.38 trillion yuan , up  2.3% year-on-year . Margin Compression Remains Key Headwind The banking sector continues to face a  “double squeeze” : Record-low net interest margins (NIMs) Policy pressure to support economic growth through lending This has limited profitability even as loan volumes expand. Asset Quality Shows Early Signs of Stress While hea...

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.  reported  better-than-expected earnings for 2025 , as strong vehicle sales and internal restructuring helped the company close the gap with industry leader  BYD Co. . Earnings Beat Driven by Strong Sales Growth Geely posted  net profit of 16.85 billion yuan (US$2.4 billion) , slightly above market expectations of 16.5 billion yuan. Revenue surged  25% year-on-year to 345.2 billion yuan , supported by strong demand across its vehicle lineup. On an adjusted basis, excluding one-off items,  profit jumped 36% , indicating improving operational efficiency. Vehicle deliveries rose nearly  40% to 3 million units , driven by popular models such as the  EX2 hatchback (Xingyuan) and premium offerings like the  Zeekr 9X SUV , which has led sales in the high-end segment. Market Share Gains Against BYD Geely has been steadily gaining ground on BYD, even  outselling its rival globally in the first two months of 2026 , m...

While global markets reel from surging oil prices triggered by the Iran war, one unlikely market is showing resilience — China. Despite being the world’s largest crude importer, Chinese stocks, bonds and the yuan have held firm, outperforming most major markets during the recent turmoil. Key Takeaways CSI 300 down just 0.3% since conflict began Yuan steady; trade-weighted RMB index hits one-year high 10-year China bond yields barely moved (+1bp) Strategic reserves and EV dominance cushion oil shock Resilience seen as tactical, not structural China vs. Global Markets Since late February: Japan: -6% South Korea: -9% India: -4% Europe: -5% US: -1.4% China (CSI 300): -0.3% China has preserved capital better than most global markets during the oil spike. The yuan has outperformed nearly all Asian currencies, while China’s 10-year government bond yield rose just 1 basis point — compared with more than 20 basis points for US Treasuries. Why China Is Holding Up 1. Energy Security Strategy For ...

China’s trade volumes surged to record levels at the start of 2026, but escalating tensions in the Middle East now pose fresh risks to global shipping and export momentum. Key Takeaways China’s trade volumes surged above last year’s record levels before the Iran conflict erupted. Over 59 million containers were processed in the first nine weeks of 2026, up more than 12% year-on-year. Escalating tensions around Iran now threaten Middle East demand and global shipping routes. Record Container Throughput in Early 2026 More than  59 million containers  moved through Chinese ports in the first nine weeks of the year — up over  12% year-on-year , according to the Ministry of Transport. The strong start extended the export surge seen in late 2025, when total outbound shipments reached  US$3.8 trillion , a record high. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.  noted that freight volumes from 20 major Chinese ports also exceeded 2025 levels. Key Point: China’s trade momentum was acceler...

Quick Summary Nvidia guides Q1 sales at  US$78 billion , above consensus Shares  fell ~1%  despite strong numbers China revenue excluded from outlook AI spending sustainability still questioned Upbeat Forecast, Lukewarm Reaction Nvidia Corp  projected fiscal Q1 revenue of  US$78 billion , beating Wall Street’s average estimate of US$72.8 billion. However, some bullish analysts had expected numbers closer to  US$80 billion  — and the stock slipped about  1%  after the announcement. Key point: Nvidia is still growing fast — but expectations are even higher. Q4 Results Still Massive For the quarter ended Jan 25: Revenue surged  73% to US$68.1 billion EPS:  US$1.62  (vs US$1.53 expected) Adjusted gross margin:  75.2% Data-centre revenue:  US$62.3 billion  (above estimates) Nvidia remains the dominant supplier of AI accelerator chips powering global data centres. China: Still a Big Unknown The company: Excluded  ...

China’s producer price deflation softened in January, helped largely by a  global metals rally , though economists warn that a sustained reflation remains elusive without stronger domestic demand. Key Inflation Data (January 2026) Producer Price Index (PPI): -1.4% YoY Smallest decline since July 2024 Improved from -2.1% previously Consumer Price Index (CPI): +0.2% YoY Slowed from +0.8% in December Core CPI: +0.8% (six-month low) Headline improvement masks fragile underlying demand. What’s Driving the PPI Rebound? The improvement was concentrated in  upstream sectors , particularly metals: Non-ferrous metal materials: +16.1% YoY Mining & processing prices: +22.7% The rally in global commodities — especially gold and industrial metals — provided external support. However,  downstream consumer goods prices worsened , with declines widening to  -1.7% , highlighting weak household demand. Morgan Stanley economist  Robin Xing  noted that there is  “no de...

Apple ’s FY26 Q1 results didn’t simply outperform forecasts. They forced investors to rethink  where the real risks now sit — and which long-running worries may finally be losing relevance. For several quarters, two concerns dominated the narrative: a sluggish China recovery and the threat that rising component costs would erode margins. This earnings report directly challenged both. The China Question Has Shifted Greater China revenue reached  US$25.5 billion , rising  38% year over year  — the fastest pace since 2021 and well ahead of market expectations. More important than the headline number is what it removes. China had been a persistent drag on Apple’s growth story, underperforming the company average for nine consecutive quarters. This quarter breaks that pattern decisively. The rebound was driven primarily by iPhone demand, helped by extended state subsidies and a sharp recovery in foreign-brand smartphone shipments. With China once again contributing meanin...

China has  conditionally approved  its leading AI startup  DeepSeek  to purchase  Nvidia ’s  H200 artificial intelligence chips , a move that could significantly shape China’s next phase of AI development — and intensify US-China tech scrutiny. What Happened Chinese authorities granted  conditional approval  for DeepSeek to buy Nvidia’s  H200 AI chips Regulatory conditions are still being finalised , according to sources Approvals were issued by China’s industry and commerce ministries, with conditions set by the  National Development and Reform Commission The H200 is Nvidia’s  second most powerful AI chip  and has become a sensitive focal point in  US–China tech relations . Bigger Picture: Not Just DeepSeek Reuters previously reported that: ByteDance Alibaba Tencent were also given approval to collectively purchase  over 400,000 H200 chips , though shipments remain subject to final regulatory sign-off. Nvidia: Licenc...

Key Takeaway:  Despite export bans, China’s semiconductor industry continues to secure vital chipmaking tools from US and allied firms, exposing cracks in the global tech blockade. Policy Gaps Undermine US Efforts A bipartisan US congressional report has revealed that Chinese chip manufacturers purchased  US$38 billion  worth of semiconductor equipment from American and allied suppliers in 2024 — a  66% jump  from 2022. The surge highlights  loopholes  in export controls introduced by the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. These inconsistencies allowed non-US companies to sell equipment to Chinese firms that American suppliers were barred from serving. Who’s Selling and Who’s Buying According to the report, sales to China represented  39% of total revenue  for top toolmakers: Applied Materials Lam Research KLA Corp ASML Tokyo Electron Chinese firms  SwaySure Technology ,  Shenzhen Pengxinxu , and  SiEn (Qingdao)  were identif...