MONEY MASTER

Key Takeaways The Japanese yen has fallen to its weakest level since 1986 , despite rising domestic bond yields, breaking a long-standing market relationship. Mizuho believes traditional interest rate models are no longer reliable  for forecasting the yen's direction in the current environment. Markets are watching the 163 yen-per-US dollar level , with expectations that Japanese authorities may tolerate further weakness before intervening. Changes in global capital flows and hedging behaviour  are becoming more influential than interest rate differentials. A weaker yen supports Japanese exporters but increases inflationary pressure  through higher import costs. Market Overview The  Japanese yen  continues to trade near its weakest level in four decades, prompting market participants to reassess one of the most widely used methods for forecasting currency movements. According to  Mizuho Bank , the traditional relationship between  Japan-US interest rat...

The  US dollar’s global dominance remains firmly entrenched , with any meaningful challenge likely  decades away , according to  Franklin Resources Inc . Structural Strength Still Supports the Dollar Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton, highlighted three core pillars underpinning the dollar’s status: Scale of the US economy Depth and liquidity of financial markets Strong institutional credibility These factors continue to make the dollar the  primary global reserve currency , with no immediate rival capable of matching its ecosystem. No Credible Alternatives in Sight Despite growing debate around de-dollarisation, key alternatives face structural limitations: The  euro lacks a unified safe asset at scale China’s  Renminbi  remains constrained by  capital controls and limited convertibility Other assets like  gold and cryptocurrencies  lack the  institutional framework and liquidity depth  required As a r...

Emerging Asian markets came under heavy pressure on Monday as  persistent Middle East tensions kept oil prices elevated , driving risk aversion and accelerating capital outflows across the region. Broad Selloff Across Emerging Asia The  MSCI Emerging Asia Index fell 3% , extending its March decline to  over 11% , putting it on track for its  worst monthly performance since 2022 . Key markets led the downturn: South Korea’s Kospi plunged up to 6.4% Taiwan equities dropped as much as 3.2% Singapore and Philippines markets fell 2%–3% The selloff reflects mounting concerns over  prolonged geopolitical risks and inflation pressures . Oil Above US$110 Fuels Risk Aversion Oil prices remained  above US$110 per barrel , reinforcing fears of: Imported inflation across Asia Higher production and transport costs Slower economic growth While some Iranian supply may return to markets, investors remain focused on the  risk of further disruptions to energy infrastruct...

Global markets turned risk-off on Thursday as a sharp escalation in the  US-Israel-Iran conflict  sent  oil prices soaring  and heightened fears of  stagflation , while central banks adopted a more  hawkish tone . Energy Shock Triggers Market Selloff Oil prices surged after Iran accused Israel of targeting its  South Pars gas field , followed by retaliatory threats against energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Brent crude jumped above US$111 per barrel US crude rose over 3% to US$99.39 Natural gas surged more than 5% The escalation has raised concerns that the conflict is now directly impacting the  global energy supply chain , rather than remaining a contained geopolitical event. Equity Markets Decline Across Asia Equity markets fell sharply across the region: Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.5% South Korea equities fell 2.5% MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan declined over 1% European futures slid more than 1.5% Investors are increasingly concerned about ...

Quick Summary Wall Street slid  on AI recession fears and fresh Trump tariffs Bursa Malaysia climbed , extending its post-CNY rebound Ringgit surged to strongest level in 8 years vs USD Government says  stronger currency won’t derail exports Wall Street Recap: AI & Tariff Shock US markets fell sharply as investors reacted to: A  Citrini Research warning  that AI could push US unemployment to 10% by 2028 President  Donald Trump  raising global tariffs from  10% to 15% Growing geopolitical tension with Iran Index Performance: Nasdaq:  -1.13% S&P 500:  -1.04% Dow Jones:  -1.66% Major decliners included: IBM  (-13.1%) American Express  (-7.2%) Visa  (-4.5%) JPMorgan Chase  (-4.2%) Salesforce  (-3.8%) Meanwhile, safe-haven metals surged: Silver futures:  +7.6% Gold futures:  +3.4% Bursa Malaysia: Ringgit Steals the Show The  FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI  rose  0.29% to 1,757.98 , extending...

Asian markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors grappled with renewed uncertainty over US tariffs, while all eyes turn to  NVIDIA  earnings — a key test for the global AI rally. Tariff Chaos Clouds Outlook Markets were rattled after the  US Supreme Court struck down emergency tariffs  imposed by  Donald Trump , prompting the White House to announce: A new  10% global tariff Then a surprise increase to  15% It remains unclear: When tariffs take effect Which countries are excluded Whether all nations face the 15% rate Key issue: Policy unpredictability is reviving “sell America” sentiment. Market Snapshot MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan:  +0.5% (thin trade) South Korea:  +2.0% (after +5.5% last week to record highs) S&P 500 futures:  -0.3% Nasdaq futures:  -0.4% Japan markets were closed for a holiday. Nvidia Earnings: AI Sentiment at Risk Nvidia, which accounts for  ~8% of the S&P 500 , is expected to report: EPS forec...

Quick Summary RBI kept its key rate unchanged at 5.25% , matching market expectations US slashed tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% , lifting growth outlook Rupee rebounded strongly , becoming Asia’s top performer this month Inflation remains well below target , giving RBI policy flexibility What Happened The  Reserve Bank of India  held its  repo rate at 5.25% , with the six-member Monetary Policy Committee voting  unanimously  to keep policy unchanged and maintain a  neutral stance . The decision comes as India’s macro outlook improves, helped by  higher government spending  and a surprise  US–India trade boost . Why the Outlook Improved US President  Donald Trump  announced  tariff cuts on Indian goods to 18% from 50% Economists now expect  upward revisions to India’s growth forecasts The Indian government increased  budgetary spending , supporting domestic demand Key impact:  The  rupee bounced back...

Summary UBS expects the  ringgit to strengthen towards 3.80 against the US dollar by December , potentially reaching its strongest level in more than a decade. The outlook is supported by  strong capital inflows, AI-driven investments, a resilient trade surplus, and narrowing US–Malaysia interest rate differentials . Key Points Ringgit target: 3.80 per US dollar by December , last seen in 2015 Best-performing major Asian currency in early 2026 , up over  3% YTD More than 10% gain in 2025 , extending its recovery trend What’s Driving the Ringgit Higher Sustained foreign inflows  from multi-year investments into  data centres and the digital economy Global tech and AI demand  expected to remain strong into 2026, supporting Malaysia’s  trade surplus Narrowing interest rate gap  as the  US is expected to cut rates , while  Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to stay on hold This environment encourages  USD-to-ringgit conversions by corporate...

Simple Summary Rupee posts its biggest gain in over three years Indian stocks jump the most since 2021 US slashes tariffs on Indian goods to 18% Deal removes a major overhang on Indian markets What Happened Indian markets roared higher after US President  Donald Trump  announced a sharp  tariff cut on Indian goods to 18% , down from 25%, while also  scrapping an additional 25% levy  tied to India’s purchases of Russian crude. Market Reaction Nifty 50 Index:   +5% intraday  (biggest jump since 2021) Indian rupee:   +1.2% to 90.46/USD , its strongest move in more than three years The deal delivered  much-needed relief  to the rupee, which had been  Asia’s worst-performing currency in January . Why It Matters India sends a  large share of exports to the US Tariffs had weighed on  equities, currency and foreign inflows The agreement  lifts a key source of uncertainty  for investors “The deal finally provides some rel...

Asian equities and gold  bounced back on Tuesday , as markets steadied after last week’s violent swings triggered by shifts in US monetary expectations and forced unwinding of leveraged trades. Why Markets Are Calmer Asian stocks rallied sharply , led by Japan and South Korea Gold and silver rebounded  after deep, leverage-driven selloffs US factory activity surprised to the upside , supporting risk sentiment Investors are refocusing on  earnings and central bank decisions Asia Market Moves Japan’s Nikkei 225:   +2.5% , recouping prior losses South Korea’s Kospi:   +4.0% Hong Kong futures:  Pointing higher S&P 500 futures:   +0.3% Australian shares rose  1.3% , while the  Australian dollar  held firm near  US$0.6958 , after logging its  biggest monthly gain in three years  in January. Gold and Silver Bounce Gold:   +3%  to  ~US$4,800/oz , nearly  9% off Monday’s lows Silver:   +5%  to...

Quick Summary US dollar has fallen nearly 12% under Trump’s second term , hitting its weakest level since 2022 Trump’s tariffs, Fed pressure, and geopolitical rhetoric  are reviving fears of deliberate dollar weakening Investors are hedging, diversifying, and reducing US exposure Emerging markets and gold benefited , while confidence in the dollar’s safe-haven status erodes What’s Driving the Dollar Selloff The so-called  “debasement trade”  is back. Currency traders globally have ramped up bets against the dollar as President  Donald Trump : Renewed  tariff threats  against allies Publicly  pressured the Federal Reserve  to cut rates Signalled comfort with a  weaker dollar , calling its level “great for business” Stoked geopolitical unease, from Greenland rhetoric to Western Hemisphere dominance The  Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index  has dropped almost  12% , marking its sharpest slide since Trump’s April trade-war shocks. Why Inve...

Quick Summary Global equities advanced  as investors leaned on earnings optimism Gold and silver hit fresh record highs  on safe-haven demand Oil prices jumped  on renewed US–Iran tensions Rate-cut expectations eased  after the Fed signalled a prolonged pause Stocks Hold Firm on Earnings Optimism World shares edged higher on Thursday as markets looked to  corporate earnings  to support valuations, even as expectations for near-term US rate cuts faded. Euro STOXX 600  rose  0.5% , supported by strength in  energy and basic resources UK, France and Spain posted gains, while  Germany slipped 0.6% S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures  rose around  0.3%  each Investors are closely watching results from  Apple , with analysts at  JPMorgan  expecting earnings to  beat consensus , driven by stronger-than-expected  iPhone 17 demand  and slower cost growth. Fed Signals: Last Cut May Be Behind Us The  Fed...