Key Takeaway
U.S. stock futures showed slight gains Sunday night as investors looked ahead to this week’s inflation reports, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed modestly after OPEC+ confirmed it will raise production at a slower pace from October.
Market Futures Snapshot
Dow Jones Futures (YM00): +60 points (+0.1%)
S&P 500 Futures (ES00): Flat to slightly higher
Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ00): Positive territory after early dip
Gold: Slight decline, holding below recent highs
Bitcoin: Flat trading
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Higher
Last week’s jobs data rattled investors, sending the Dow lower for a second straight week (-0.3%), while the S&P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq (+1.1%) managed weekly gains.
Inflation Data in Focus
This week, markets will be watching:
Producer Price Index (PPI) – Wednesday
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Thursday
Jobs data revisions – Thursday
The spotlight will be on core CPI, which strips out food and energy, to gauge whether inflationary pressures are spreading more broadly.
Wall Street has already priced in a September rate cut, but the inflation data could set the tone for future cuts—especially as the effects of tariffs continue filtering through the economy.
Oil Market Moves
Oil prices rebounded slightly after losing over 3% last week. OPEC+ agreed Sunday to continue boosting production in October, though at a slower pace compared to recent months.
Analysts at Jefferies expect only a mild negative reaction, noting that markets had already priced in supply risks and remain skeptical about OPEC+’s ability to meet its production targets.
Brent crude: US$65.84 (+0.5%)
WTI crude: US$62.17 (+0.5%)
Tariffs and Policy Watch
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended tariffs in a weekend interview, rejecting claims they function as a tax on consumers. He warned, however, that if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, the U.S. government would have to issue massive refunds—a hit to Treasury finances.
Investor Take
This week’s CPI and PPI readings will be critical in shaping Fed expectations beyond the September cut. Equity markets remain sensitive to inflation surprises, while oil and tariffs add another layer of uncertainty. Investors should watch for volatility around Thursday’s CPI release, as it could reset near-term market sentiment.
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