Key Takeaway:
U.S. equities reversed early weakness to end Tuesday at fresh record highs, with investors betting that weaker labor data and large downward payroll revisions will accelerate the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to a record, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.3%, just shy of a new peak.
Market Performance
S&P 500: +0.3% to close at a record high.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.4%, also at a record close.
Nasdaq 100: +0.3%, narrowly missing a fresh record.
Gains were led by Alphabet (GOOGL US), after an executive projected a US$58 billion revenue boost in its cloud unit by 2027.
Drivers: Jobs Revision and Fed Outlook
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported payrolls would be revised down by 911,000 jobs for the 12 months through March. This follows last week’s weaker labor market data, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Fed shift.
- Northlight Asset Management CIO Chris Zaccarelli:“The jobs picture keeps deteriorating and while that should make it easier for the Fed to cut rates this fall, it could also throw some cold water on the recent rally.”
- Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon (Barclays Conference):Said there was no urgent need for aggressive Fed easing despite weaker labor prints.
- Morgan Stanley IM’s Jitania Kandhair:Emphasized the Fed must still maintain “inflation vigilance.”
What’s Next: Inflation Data in Focus
Markets are now bracing for key U.S. inflation reports:
Producer Price Index (PPI): Wednesday release.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Thursday release.
These will help set expectations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
- Barnum Financial’s Chris Kampitsis:A cut is “almost a certainty,” but the debate is whether it will be 25bps or 50bps.
Bottom Line
Stocks remain resilient despite weakening job data. Near-term direction will hinge on inflation prints this week, which may determine the Fed’s cut magnitude. For now, rate-cut optimism is outweighing economic concerns, lifting equity benchmarks to record highs.
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