Key Takeaway: Gold prices hovered near record highs, supported by expectations of a September Fed rate cut and a softer U.S. dollar, with spot prices steady above US$3,640/oz.
Market Moves
Spot gold: Up 0.1% to US$3,640.41/oz (as of 0103 GMT).
Record high: US$3,646.29/oz hit on Monday.
U.S. gold futures (Dec delivery): +0.1% to US$3,682/oz.
YTD gains: +38% in 2025, following +27% in 2024.
Drivers Behind the Rally
Fed expectations: Traders price in an 89.4% chance of a 25 bps cut next week; 10.6% chance of a 50 bps cut(CME FedWatch).
Weak labor data: U.S. unemployment climbed to a 4-year high of 4.3%, reinforcing the case for policy easing.
Dollar & yields:
Dollar index at a 7-week low, boosting gold’s appeal for non-dollar investors.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at a 5-month low.
Central banks: Ongoing accumulation and dovish monetary settings underpin demand.
Other Precious Metals
Silver: Flat at US$41.31/oz.
Platinum: +0.3% to US$1,387.20/oz.
Palladium: +0.8% to US$1,142.64/oz.
Outlook
Gold’s surge reflects monetary easing bets and global uncertainty. Focus now shifts to upcoming U.S. PPI (Wed) and CPI (Thu) data for confirmation of the Fed’s policy path. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged this week.
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