Oil prices edged higher Thursday after OPEC+ delayed unwinding production cuts for the second time, aiming to stabilize the market amid global oversupply and sluggish demand from China.
Market Reaction
- WTI crude (January): +$0.35 (0.5%) to $68.89/bbl.
- Brent crude (February): +$0.53 (0.7%) to $72.84/bbl.
- Natural gas (January): +2.3% to $3.115/MMBtu.
The production cuts, initially planned for January, will now begin in April 2025. Full implementation is pushed back to September 2026, marking a slower unwinding pace than earlier planned.
Expert Insights
David Oxley, Capital Economics:
- Delaying production increases buys OPEC+ time but doesn’t resolve weak global demand.
- Risks to oil prices remain skewed downward.
Robert Yawger, Mizuho Securities:
- OPEC+ appears to wait for Chinese demand recovery, a strategy that could take time.
Jefferies Analysts:
- OPEC+ is unlikely to boost supply until the market can absorb it, especially without a reduction in Iranian exports.
Broader Context
- OPEC+ Strategy: Members face internal pressure to increase production for short-term gains, particularly following expectations of higher U.S. shale output after Donald Trump’s election win. Saudi Arabia continues to maintain tight production levels.
- Iran Sanctions: The U.S. imposed sanctions on entities tied to Iranian oil exports, potentially limiting global supply.
- Natural Gas: U.S. inventories fell by 30 billion cubic feet last week, slightly less than expected, keeping gas futures stable.
Outlook
While OPEC+ aims to stabilize prices by delaying production increases, analysts warn of lingering uncertainties. Weak global demand and potential oversupply in 2025 could challenge their efforts to keep prices steady, particularly if Iranian exports remain high.
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