Oil breaks US$100, Wall Street retreats and bond yields rise, inflation is becoming the market’s biggest risk again Global markets are starting Thursday in a more defensive position. Brent crude has broken above US$100 a barrel , U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher, and Wall Street fell for a third straight session as investors reassess whether central banks may need to keep tightening rather than easing. For Malaysian investors, the key chain today is increasingly clear: Oil → inflation → interest rates → bond yields → USD/MYR → Bursa valuations. 30-second market snapshot Market / Asset Latest 🇺🇸 S&P 500 7,636.36, -0.48% 🇺🇸 Dow Jones 52,380.66, -0.77% 🇺🇸 Nasdaq 26,253.34, -0.64% 🇲🇾 FBM KLCI 1,714.34, virtually flat 💵 USD/MYR ~4.06 🇺🇸 U.S. 10Y Treasury ~4.84% 🇺🇸 U.S. 2Y Treasury ~4.42% 🥇 Gold ~US$4,396/oz 🛢️ Brent crude US$101.21/bbl 🛢️ WTI crude US$96.05/bbl ₿ Bitcoin ~US$79,300 🇯🇵 Nikkei ~64,760, -0.6% this morning Brent jumped about 3.4% Wednesda...
Global markets slid on Friday as concerns over a potential US government shutdown mounted and Donald Trump’s trade threats against Europe heightened tensions. Investors also focused on upcoming US inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy for 2025.
Key Market Highlights
1. US Government Shutdown Risks
- A spending bill failed in the House of Representatives on Thursday, highlighting political volatility under President-elect Donald Trump.
- Trump’s proposed tariffs and spending policies have increased uncertainty, with credit default swaps (CDS) on six-month US bills rising to a four-week high of 11 basis points.
2. Trump’s Trade Threats
- Trump warned the European Union to increase purchases of US oil and gas or face tariffs:
- “Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” he stated on Truth Social.
- European stocks fell 1%, marking a 3% weekly drop, as US stock futures slipped 0.7%-1.1%.
3. Inflation and Fed Policy Outlook
- The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), a key US inflation measure, is expected to rise 0.2% in November.
- A higher reading could further reduce expectations for rate cuts next year, with markets now pricing in fewer than two cuts for 2025.
4. Treasury and Currency Market Impact
- 10-year Treasury yields surpassed 4.5% for the first time since May, amid a cautious Fed stance.
- Dollar Performance:
- Down 0.3% at 108.12, but close to a two-year peak of 108.43.
- Euro gained 0.2% to US$1.03925.
- Yen recovered 0.4%, trading at 156.87, after plunging 1.7% the previous day due to the Bank of Japan's dovish stance.
5. Commodity Prices
- Oil: US West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6% to US$68.96.
- Gold: Gained 0.5% to US$2,605 per ounce, benefiting from safe-haven demand.
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