The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
President-elect Donald Trump has warned the European Union (EU) of impending tariffs if its member states fail to increase their imports of American oil and gas, marking another potential escalation in transatlantic trade tensions.
Key Developments
Trump's Warning on Truth Social
- Trump stated, “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!”
- The US, as the largest global producer of crude oil and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), aims to strengthen its energy trade dominance.
EU's Preparations for Trade Tensions
- The EU is bracing for potential trade wars under Trump’s renewed "America First" agenda, recalling the 2017 steel and aluminum tariffs imposed during his first term.
- German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasized a united European stance: “If the new US administration pursues an ‘America First’ policy, then our response will be ‘Europe united.’”
LNG Trade Dynamics
- The EU is already the largest importer of American LNG, with over 50% of US deliveries heading to Europe last year.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested replacing Russian LNG with US imports:
- “Why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper and brings down our energy prices?”
- Despite sanctions, Russian pipeline gas and LNG continue to play a significant role in Europe’s energy supply.
EU's Countermeasures
- The bloc has fortified its trade defenses with:
- Anti-coercion instruments to impose punitive tariffs or restrictions.
- Foreign subsidies regulation to limit foreign companies receiving unfair state aid from participating in EU tenders and mergers.
- These measures aim to protect the EU from politically motivated trade restrictions.
Broader Implications
- Trump's grievances extend beyond trade to defense spending and NATO contributions, with a history of criticizing Brussels and threatening tariffs against nations with US trade deficits.
- The US remains a major crude oil exporter to Europe, Canada, and Asia, leveraging its position to push for favorable trade agreements.
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