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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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Kenanga Predicts Ringgit to Stay Weak Against US Dollar Into 2025

The ringgit is forecast to remain under pressure against the US dollar in the near term, driven by the Federal Reserve’s less dovish monetary stance, according to Kenanga Research.

Key Projections

  • Exchange Rate: The ringgit is expected to stay above 4.50 against the US dollar going into 2025.
  • Recent Performance: The ringgit, which had gained 15% against the dollar between January and September, has since retreated amid the strength of the US economy. It last traded at 4.5060, up 1.88% year-to-date.

Factors Influencing the Ringgit

  1. US Economic Strength: Strong domestic demand and inflationary pressures are propping up the dollar.
  2. Fed’s Monetary Policy: The Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts bolsters the dollar’s appeal, with markets anticipating only one rate cut in 2025.
  3. Trump’s Policies: Uncertainty around policies under the incoming US administration may lead the Fed to delay cuts further.

Outlook for 2025

  • Kenanga projects two to three Fed rate cuts in 2025, which could provide relief for the ringgit in the latter half of the year.
  • In Malaysia, Bank Negara’s overnight policy rate is expected to remain steady at 3% through 2025.
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