Retail sales rose 0.7% in November, surpassing economists’ forecasts of 0.5%, according to the Census Bureau. This solid gain highlights strong consumer spending as the holiday shopping season kicked off.
Key Insights
- Annual Growth: Retail sales climbed 3.8% year-over-year, showcasing steady momentum.
- Holiday Spending Strength: Despite a late Thanksgiving pushing Cyber Monday into December, holiday spending is off to a robust start.
- Cyber Week Sales: Adobe Analytics reported $41.1 billion in online sales during Cyber Week, an 8.2% increase from last year.
What’s Driving the Growth?
- Consumer Resilience: Credit card data from Bank of America shows household spending grew 0.6% year-over-year in November.
- Shortened Season Impact: A delayed start to the holidays might mean higher weekly spending over a shorter season.
- Strong December Momentum: KeyBanc data shows the second-strongest spending week since September during the week of Dec. 8.
What It Means for the Fed
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, with traders pricing in a 99.1% chance, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- Takeaway: The solid retail sales figure supports a healthy economy without sparking concerns of overheating.
Bottom Line
Holiday spending is shaping up to exceed last year’s levels, with cumulative sales showing significant strength. This data confirms that consumer demand remains solid, providing a positive outlook for retailers and broader economic stability heading into 2025.
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