The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
The Bank of England's split 6-3 vote to hold its key interest rate signals that a rate cut at the February meeting is a strong possibility, according to Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
Key Insights
Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts
- The Bank of England is expected to proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts next year due to rising inflation risks both domestically and internationally.
- "Rate setters are likely to take baby steps in cutting interest rates," said Thiru, emphasizing the challenges posed by complex inflation dynamics.
Inflation Challenges
- While inflation is expected to drift higher, it complicates the timing and pace of policy loosening, leaving the central bank with limited flexibility.
February Rate Cut in Focus
- The 6-3 vote suggests a rate cut could occur in February, but the pace and size of future cuts remain uncertain amid growing economic risks.
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