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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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Trump’s Market Legacy: Will His Second Term Match the First?

Donald Trump’s first presidency saw remarkable gains for the S&P 500, which surged 67.82% over four years, fueled by policies favoring growth and deregulation. As Trump prepares to return to office in January 2025, market analysts are closely watching for his policy impact on equities.

Key Highlights of Trump’s First Term

  • Pre-Inauguration Gains:

    • S&P 500 rose 6.56% between Election Day (Nov 8, 2016) and Trump’s inauguration (Jan 20, 2017).

  • Post-Inauguration Performance:

    • 6 months in: +9.27%.
    • 1 year in: +24.15%.
    • By the end of his term: +67.82%.

Second Term: Initial Market Reactions and Key Developments

1. Post-Election Gains

  • S&P 500 is up 6% since Election Day 2024, maintaining an upward trend.

2. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance

  • The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this week but emphasized caution in future rate cuts.
  • Impact:
    • Dow Jones fell 1,100 points (-2.95%).
    • S&P 500 dropped 2.95%.
    • CBOE Volatility Index surged 74%.

3. Market Focus

  • Analysts anticipate further impacts from Trump’s policies, including tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and a renewed focus on fossil fuels and infrastructure spending.

Sectoral and Policy Impacts

1. Financials and Banking

  • Deregulation could enhance bank profitability.
  • Winners:
    • Citigroup (C.US).
    • Goldman Sachs (GS.US).
    • JPMorgan (JPM.US).

2. Small-Cap and Cyclical Stocks

  • Tax cuts favor smaller companies, with the Russell 2000 Index hitting all-time highs post-election.

3. Energy

  • Expansion of oil and natural gas production, reopening of offshore leases, and traditional energy policies are expected to benefit cyclical stocks.

4. AI and Technology

  • Structural growth in artificial intelligence remains a key driver, with the S&P 500 projected to reach 6,600 points by 2025, according to UBS.

5. Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin surged past $100,000 post-election, benefiting from Trump’s lenient crypto stance.

Outlook for January 2025

  • January Effect: Analysts expect seasonal capital inflows to bolster stocks.
  • Market expectations center on moderate economic growth, lower interest rates, and continued momentum from AI-driven industries.
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