Key European Central Bank (ECB) governors have expressed support for additional interest rate cuts in 2025 if inflation aligns with the ECB's 2% target, signaling a continued push for monetary easing.
Key Developments:
- Thursday’s Rate Cut: The ECB reduced the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, marking the fourth cut this year. Markets anticipate another 100 basis points in reductions by mid-2025.
- Inflation Trends: Eurozone inflation stood at 2.3% in November, nearing the ECB’s goal.
- Governor Statements:
- France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau: Indicated further rate cuts are on the horizon, aligning with market expectations.
- Spain's Jose Luis Escriva: Called it "logical" to lower rates further if inflation continues to ease toward the target.
- Austria's Robert Holzmann: Backed reducing rates to a neutral level of around 2%, signaling a shift from his previously hawkish stance.
- Luxembourg's Gaston Reinesch: Predicted the deposit rate could drop to 2.5% by early spring 2025, potentially through consecutive 25 bp cuts in January and March.
Cautious Optimism and Risks:
ECB President Christine Lagarde remained more guarded, citing potential risks including U.S. trade tariffs, political uncertainties in France and Germany, and persistent domestic inflation pressures.
Rate Cut Strategy:
The majority of policymakers appear to favor gradual reductions of 25 basis points to carefully monitor disinflationary effects, as highlighted by Escriva. Larger cuts, such as 50 basis points, seem unlikely at this stage.
Market Implications:
If these policy signals materialize, investors can expect continued easing, offering relief to borrowers while potentially spurring economic growth across the eurozone. However, the trajectory remains contingent on inflation trends and broader geopolitical and economic developments.
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