The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
As Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House, global central banks and markets are grappling with the uncertainty of his policies. From tariffs and tax cuts to immigration curbs, Trump's proposals are already reshaping projections for growth, inflation, and interest rates across the world.
Key Highlights
Federal Reserve Urges Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty
- The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday but scaled back projections for future cuts due to stubborn inflation and uncertainty around Trump’s policies.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted officials have begun factoring in conditional economic effects of potential Trump policies, including tariffs and fiscal changes.
- Key Projection: Growth is expected to be higher in 2025, but so is inflation, leading to just one rate cut priced in for 2025.
Global Central Banks React
- Bank of England: Held its interest rate at 4.75%, citing uncertainty over global economic policies.
- Governor Andrew Bailey stated, "We can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates."
- Bank of Japan: Maintained ultra-low interest rates, with Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighting potential negative impacts of Trump’s trade policies on Japan’s export-driven economy.
- Norway’s Central Bank: Held rates at a 16-year high of 4.50%, flagging concerns over a potential US-China trade war.
- Sweden’s Central Bank: Cut rates to 2.50% but signaled caution about further cuts in early 2025.
European and Canadian Policy Shifts
- European Central Bank (ECB): Lowered rates last week, emphasizing downside risks to growth, including potential trade tensions with the US.
- Canada: Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned, citing disagreements with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on handling Trump’s threats of 25% tariffs on Canadian imports.
Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Impacted
- Trump's idea of creating a strategic bitcoin reserve faced a blow when Powell clarified the Fed has no legal authority to hold bitcoin and no plans to seek such authority.
- Market Reaction: Bitcoin dropped 5%, its largest decline in three months, alongside a broad slide in crypto-related assets.
Implications for Global Growth
- Many central banks are slowing or halting rate cuts as they brace for Trump-era trade and fiscal policies.
- The possibility of new tariffs and trade wars is expected to dampen global growth and disrupt financial markets.
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