Canadian retail sales showed no growth in November, halting a four-month streak of gains, according to an advanced estimate by Statistics Canada. This follows a 0.6% increase in October, slightly below the 0.7% forecast by Bloomberg-polled economists.
Key Highlights
- Consumption Weakens: Retail sales stalling signals waning consumer momentum as the Bank of Canada continues to lower borrowing costs, albeit at a slower pace.
- Bank of Canada Rate Cuts: Since June, the central bank has reduced rates by 175 basis points, with another 50 basis points cut last week. Policymakers are expected to continue easing early next year.
- Subsector Performance:
- Automotive Sales Lead Gains: Sales increased at both new and used car dealerships in October.
- Core Retail Sales: Excluding gas stations and car dealers, core sales rose 0.2%, driven by furniture, electronics, and personal care.
- Gas Station Sales Decline: Receipts dropped for the sixth consecutive month in October.
- Regional Growth: Ontario and British Columbia saw significant increases in sales, particularly in car sales, while retail sales grew in seven out of ten provinces.
Wholesale Sales Drop
A separate advance data release showed wholesale sales fell by 0.7% in November, adding to signs of a cooling economy.
Looking Ahead
The stalling retail figures point to a slowdown in consumption, a key driver of economic growth. While the Bank of Canada’s easing cycle supports the economy, a slower pace of rate cuts and weaker consumer activity could weigh on economic momentum heading into 2025.
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