Global Markets Week Ahead: US Inflation, Earnings, and Global Indicators to Watch

As 2024 winds down, global markets are entering a pivotal week filled with data releases and corporate updates that could set the tone for 2025. With inflation figures, earnings reports, and central bank decisions on the horizon, investors have their eyes on key markets from the United States to Southeast Asia.

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United States: Inflation Data and Earnings in Focus

• Inflation Report:
  The US inflation report for November, due on Wednesday, will be the centerpiece of the week. Year-on-year inflation is expected to tick up slightly to 2.7%, while core inflation remains steady at 3.3%. These figures will influence the Federal Reserve's stance as its December meeting approaches, potentially signaling whether the Fed continues its hawkish trajectory or pivots to a more accommodative policy in 2024.

• Earnings Highlights:
  Major companies set to report include:
  • Oracle (NYSE: ORCL): Investors are keen on updates about its cloud and AI strategies, which continue to drive growth.
  • Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE): Its integration of AI features across platforms will be closely examined.
  • Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO): The semiconductor leader is expected to showcase its dominance in AI-driven demand, with AI-related revenues projected to exceed $12 billion in fiscal 2024.

• Additional Data Points:
  Other notable releases include the Producer Price Index (PPI), jobless claims, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Together, these will provide a more comprehensive view of the US economy.

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China: Trade and Inflation Insights

• Weak Domestic Demand:
  China’s inflation is forecasted at a modest 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting subdued domestic activity despite Beijing's policy interventions.

• Trade Data:
  Exports are projected to grow by 10%, while imports rebound by 3.6%, offering clues about China’s recovery amidst a tough global economic climate.

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Europe: ECB Decision Amid Uncertainty

• Rate Cut Expected:
  The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points on Thursday. This comes against the backdrop of heightened political turmoil in France and the potential impact of President-elect Trump’s tariff threats on the eurozone economy.

• ECB Commentary:
  ECB President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting statements will be scrutinized for clues on monetary policy direction in 2025, especially given the external risks.

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MIST Economies: Resilience Amid Global Challenges

The MIST economies—Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand—offer insights into regional dynamics:

• Malaysia:
  Stable unemployment and steady industrial production growth reflect robust domestic demand.

• Indonesia:
  Trade data is expected to highlight strong commodity-driven export growth alongside healthy retail sales.

• Singapore:
  While non-oil exports may dip, liquidity conditions will be gauged through Treasury bill auctions.

• Thailand:
  Consumer confidence and foreign exchange reserves will provide a snapshot of economic stability, with tourism and agriculture remaining key growth sectors.

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Conclusion

This week underscores the interconnectedness of global markets, with US inflation and earnings reports likely setting the tone for broader trends. Investors will also focus on China’s economic recovery, the ECB's policy stance, and resilience in Southeast Asia’s MIST economies. With the Federal Reserve’s December meeting looming, the data released this week will shape expectations as markets approach the year’s final trading weeks.