Oil breaks US$100, Wall Street retreats and bond yields rise, inflation is becoming the market’s biggest risk again Global markets are starting Thursday in a more defensive position. Brent crude has broken above US$100 a barrel , U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher, and Wall Street fell for a third straight session as investors reassess whether central banks may need to keep tightening rather than easing. For Malaysian investors, the key chain today is increasingly clear: Oil → inflation → interest rates → bond yields → USD/MYR → Bursa valuations. 30-second market snapshot Market / Asset Latest 🇺🇸 S&P 500 7,636.36, -0.48% 🇺🇸 Dow Jones 52,380.66, -0.77% 🇺🇸 Nasdaq 26,253.34, -0.64% 🇲🇾 FBM KLCI 1,714.34, virtually flat 💵 USD/MYR ~4.06 🇺🇸 U.S. 10Y Treasury ~4.84% 🇺🇸 U.S. 2Y Treasury ~4.42% 🥇 Gold ~US$4,396/oz 🛢️ Brent crude US$101.21/bbl 🛢️ WTI crude US$96.05/bbl ₿ Bitcoin ~US$79,300 🇯🇵 Nikkei ~64,760, -0.6% this morning Brent jumped about 3.4% Wednesda...
China, the world’s largest oil importer, is projected to hit its oil consumption peak by 2027, driven by the shift to electric vehicles (EVs) and liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered trucks, according to Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner.
Key Highlights
Oil Demand Peaks
- 2027 Peak: Oil consumption will plateau at 800 million metric tonnes (~16 million barrels per day).
- 2024 Outlook: Demand is projected to drop to 750 million tonnes, marking only the second decline in two decades.
Key Factors Behind the Peak
Shift to Cleaner Energy:
- Electric Vehicles:
- Displacing 26 million tonnes of gasoline (~15% of total consumption).
- Gasoline demand set to decline 2.4% to 173 million tonnes by 2025.
- LNG-Fueled Trucks:
- Account for 22% of truck sales in 2024.
- Diesel demand expected to drop 5.5% to 174 million tonnes by 2025.
Sectoral Shifts:
- By 2060, the petrochemical sector will consume 55% of oil, up from 22% in 2024.
Aviation Fuel:
- The only refined product expected to grow in 2025, rising 7% to 45.5 million tonnes.
Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
- Trump’s Iran Policy:
- Possible tightened sanctions on Iranian oil exports (~1.5 million barrels/day), most of which are purchased by China.
- Potential reduced geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East, which could lower oil prices.
Natural Gas Demand Trends
- Peak Consumption Revised Higher:
- Forecast to plateau at 620 billion cubic meters (bcm) between 2035–2040, up from last year’s estimate of 610 bcm by 2040.
- 2025 Projection:
- Natural gas consumption to rise 6.6% to 458 bcm, driven by:
- Increased LNG use in trucking.
- New gas power generation.
- Higher industrial and residential demand.
Carbon Emissions Forecast
- Revised forecast for energy-related carbon emissions to peak between 10.8 billion and 11.12 billion tonnes before 2030 (up from last year’s estimate of 10.1 billion tonnes).
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