The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
The UK government reported a smaller-than-expected budget deficit in November, offering a brief respite for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who faces mounting challenges to balance public finances amid a slowing economy and rising inflation.
Key November Borrowing Figures
- Public Sector Net Borrowing:
- £11.249 billion, lower than the £13 billion forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
- A £1.8 billion reduction in inflation-linked debt compensation due to a 0.3% fall in the retail price index(RPI) in September helped narrow the deficit.
Year-to-Date Borrowing
- April–November 2024/25 Financial Year:
- Borrowing totaled £113.2 billion, similar to the same period in 2023/24.
- Despite November’s improved figures, borrowing has exceeded expectations in eight out of 11 months in 2024.
Challenges Ahead for Reeves
Fiscal Rules Under Strain:
- Reeves pledged to balance day-to-day spending with tax revenues by the end of the decade.
- Plans include significant borrowing for public services and infrastructure investment, diverging from previous Conservative policies.
Economic Headwinds:
- Zero GDP Growth: The Bank of England predicts stagnation for Q4 2024.
- Rising Inflation: Recent upticks could drive higher borrowing costs.
- Alison Ring of ICAEW warns that "money remains extremely tight and that is unlikely to change any time soon."
Tax Increases:
- Reeves’ budget announced the largest tax hikes in three decades, primarily through higher employer social security contributions, to stabilize public finances.
Revised October Borrowing Data
- October’s borrowing was adjusted upward by £800 million, highlighting ongoing volatility in fiscal metrics.
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