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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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Gold Slides 1.6% as Fed Signals Cautious Rate Cuts, Economic Data Looms

Gold is heading for a weekly decline, with prices down 1.6% as optimism over 2025 Federal Reserve rate cutswanes. Despite trading above US$2,605 per ounce, the precious metal faces pressure from hawkish signals and resilient US economic data.

Key Highlights

1. Fed’s Rate-Cut Outlook

  • The Fed reduced rates on Wednesday but hinted at a cautious approach to further cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for “more progress on inflation” before additional easing.
  • Lower rates typically benefit gold, as it doesn’t pay interest, but the current monetary stance has tempered expectations.

2. Economic Data Weighs on Gold

  • US GDP Data: Thursday’s report showed resilient economic growth and consumer spending revised up to 2.2%, reducing urgency for rate cuts.
  • Traders now await the November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a critical inflation indicator, due Friday.

3. Gold’s 2024 Rally Stalls

  • 2024 Performance: Gold surged 26% this year, supported by:
    • Monetary easing in the US.
    • Safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties.
    • Sustained central bank buying.
  • The rally paused in November as Donald Trump’s election victory boosted the US dollar, pressuring gold prices.

4. Market Challenges Ahead

  • ANZ Group Analysis: Analysts highlighted a potential headwind from weakening physical demand in India, a key gold market.
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.2% over three sessions, further weighing on gold prices.

Other Precious Metals

  • Silver: Steady.
  • Palladium: Unchanged.
  • Platinum: Declined.
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