US Stocks Close at Record Highs as Alphabet Boosts AI Optimism, But Caution Builds Ahead of Fed Decision
US stocks ended at fresh all-time highs Thursday, powered by strong earnings from Alphabet that reinforced investor confidence in the artificial intelligence boom driving the market. The S&P 500 posted its 10th record close in 19 sessions, capping a 28% rally from April lows.
What Drove the Market Higher?
Alphabet’s results showed solid AI demand, fueling a rally in tech names like Nvidia, which hit a new peak.
The gains came despite a sharp 8.2% drop in Tesla shares, after Elon Musk issued a cautious outlook.
After-hours, Intel offered a strong sales forecast, citing recovering demand in the PC market.
Broader Market Moves
The S&P 500 edged higher, maintaining record territory.
10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.41%, following a sixth consecutive weekly decline in jobless claims—the longest streak since 2022.
Traders reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, now pricing in fewer than two.
Spotlight on the Fed
The market’s next test will be the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. With continued strength in the labor market and signs of economic resilience, policymakers may hold rates steady for longer. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is under renewed pressure from President Trump, who visited the Fed this week urging significant rate cuts.
Risk Signals Emerge
Margin debt is rising rapidly, suggesting investors are aggressively borrowing to chase gains—a potential red flag for credit markets.
Trading desks at firms like Goldman Sachs and Citadel are advising clients to hedge against downside risk, citing potential volatility from tariffs and policy uncertainty.
BNP Paribas warned markets are underestimating the impact of new trade barriers and the potential for retaliation.
Some Still See Strength
JPMorgan's trading desk expects the rally to continue, citing solid earnings and AI momentum.
Piper Sandler analysts argue the bull market is broadening, not overheating, pointing to gains in smaller-cap stocks and rising market breadth.
The NYSE advance-decline line, which tracks how many stocks are rising versus falling, hit fresh highs this week.
Conclusion & Key Takeaways:
Strong results from Alphabet helped drive major indices to new highs, continuing a tech-led rally centered around AI.
With jobless claims falling and inflation still sticky, the Federal Reserve may stay cautious on rate cuts.
Investors are starting to hedge against risks such as high valuations, rising margin debt, and global trade tensions.
Despite potential headwinds, institutional desks believe the rally still has room to run, supported by broadening market participation.
While the AI boom continues to fuel optimism, all eyes now turn to next week’s Fed decision—and whether the rally can withstand any shift in tone from policymakers.
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