The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) — a key barometer for small- and mid-cap U.S. stocks — hasn’t set a new high since Nov. 8, 2021, marking nearly four years below its peak. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to hit fresh records, creating the longest divergence on record between the two indexes while the S&P climbs.
Why It Matters:
A healthy market is usually “firing on all cylinders,” with small- and large-cap stocks moving in sync.
Historical example: In 2007, the Russell 2000 peaked 3 months before the S&P 500, foreshadowing the Global Financial Crisis.
Is This a Red Flag Now?
Analysts say long-term (multi-year) divergences don’t necessarily signal major tops.
Short-term divergences (1–3 months) are more predictive. In late 2021, the Russell lagged the S&P by 7%, preceding the 2022 bear market.
Current Outlook:
The past 3 months tell a different story:
Russell 2000: +18.7%
S&P 500: +18.2%
The Russell is nearing its first golden cross in 18 months, a bullish technical signal.
Market strategists see “no evidence of a major top” at present.
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