Asian markets fell on Tuesday as investors reassessed the long-term impact of the new U.S.-EU trade deal and the reality that higher tariffs are here to stay, raising concerns over global growth and inflation.
Key Market Moves
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan: Down 0.7%
Japan’s Nikkei: -0.8%
China Blue Chips: -0.1%
Euro: Flat at US$1.1592 after its biggest drop since May (-1.3% overnight)
Brent Oil: +0.1% to US$70.10, following a 2.3% jump Monday
Tariff Shock
The U.S.-EU pact avoided the worst-case scenario but imposed a 15% levy, up sharply from the 1–2% rates before Trump took office.
Trump warned of a potential 15–20% “world tariff” on countries without deals, the highest global rate since the 1930s.
JPMorgan economists said the move is “a significant tax increase on EU exports” and “unwinds a century of U.S. leadership in free trade.”
Other Market Drivers
Oil Prices: Spiked on Trump’s 10–12 day deadline for Russia to act on Ukraine or face tougher sanctions on oil exports.
U.S. Markets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged up (0.1% and 0.2%) ahead of mega-cap earnings from Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon.
Treasuries: 10-year yield held at 4.408% with markets pricing in a 97% chance the Fed holds rates steady this week.
Economic Data in Focus
U.S. Q2 GDP: Expected to rebound to 2.4% annualized after Q1’s 0.5% contraction.
Job Openings: Due later Tuesday ahead of Friday’s key payrolls report.
Bank of Canada: Also expected to hold rates at 2.75% as it monitors U.S. trade talks.
Bottom Line: Relief from the U.S.-EU trade deal is fading as investors confront the drag of higher global tariffs. With oil rising and central banks holding steady, markets are bracing for a slower growth outlook and more inflation pressure.

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