Goldman Sachs has upgraded its outlook for Chinese stocks, expecting a potential 11% upside if the US and China reach a trade agreement.
The bank raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index to 90 from 85, according to strategists led by Kinger Lau. The move reflects optimism that a deal could remove one of the biggest risks weighing on the market.
Why Goldman Is Bullish
A US-China trade deal could be a “market-clearing event”, similar to rallies seen in other countries that struck trade pacts with the US in recent months.
Other tailwinds include a stronger yuan, easing regulatory pressures on private companies, and supportive liquidity conditions.
Sector Focus
Goldman advised investors to look at individual stocks and shifted its preference to:
Overweight: Insurance and materials.
Underweight: Banks and real estate.
Market Context
Chinese stocks have been on a winning streak, rising for three straight weeks as expectations grow for a trade breakthrough. US and Chinese officials are meeting to discuss extending their current tariff pause beyond mid-August.
Investors are also watching China’s upcoming Politburo meeting, which could set the tone for economic policy in the second half of the year. While massive stimulus isn’t expected, Goldman sees more supportive measures coming later this year if economic weaknesses emerge.
The MSCI China Index has already climbed over 25% year-to-date, making the outlook dependent on whether the trade deal materializes and policy support strengthens.
On Monday, the index rose as much as 0.9%, led by health-care and financial stocks, before trimming gains.
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