China’s factory activity unexpectedly deteriorated in July, with the official manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3 from June’s 49.7, marking its weakest reading in three months and signaling a contraction despite the recent tariff truce with the US. The figure missed economists’ median forecast of 49.7, raising fresh concerns over the durability of the country’s economic momentum.
Key Data:
Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 (vs. 49.7 in June; est. 49.7)
Non-Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 (vs. 50.5; est. 50.2)
Construction Input Prices: 54.5 (vs. 48.3), driven by rising steel and building material costs.
Market Reaction:
CSI 300 Index: Down ~1% after the release.
China Government Bonds: Futures rose as investors sought safety.
Drivers Behind the Slowdown:
Weak Exports: Early signs that shipments are slowing despite front-loading ahead of tariffs.
Soft Domestic Demand: Consumer spending remains tepid amid persistent uncertainty.
Seasonal & Weather Disruptions: NBS cited high temperatures, heavy rain, and flooding impacting production during July’s “traditional off-season.”
Broader Implications:
The latest PMI highlights the fragility of China’s recovery as the world’s second-largest economy faces headwinds from global trade tensions and muted domestic consumption. Cargo throughput at ports dropped nearly 7% week-on-week, signaling potential softening in trade.
While commodity prices like iron ore and coal have risen on policy hopes and infrastructure demand — including a 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project in Tibet — deflationary risks linger. A central bank survey revealed Chinese households are increasingly pessimistic, with job market sentiment at record lows.
Outlook:
Despite strong first-half performance surpassing the annual growth target of ~5%, the PMI contraction raises the risk of a more pronounced slowdown in the second half of 2025. Policymakers may be pressed to accelerate stimulus and bolster domestic demand to cushion the impact of global trade uncertainty.
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