There’s a new twist in global trade that might actually be good news for your wallet. A recent European Central Bank (ECB) blog post says if China starts selling more products to Europe instead of the US, prices in the eurozone could drop next year.
Why would this happen?
Right now, China is negotiating a trade deal with the US. If those talks don’t work out and the US raises tariffs on Chinese goods (possibly up to a huge 135%), China would likely send more of its products to Europe.
When more goods hit the market, supply goes up. And when supply goes up, prices often come down.
How much could prices fall?
The ECB blog estimates eurozone inflation could dip by 0.15% next year, when it’s already expected to be lower at around 1.6%.
Everyday items like electronics, home appliances, and other non-energy goods might see the biggest price drops.
The full effect could take about a year or so before you notice it in stores.
If Europe imports around 10% more goods from China, import prices might fall by 1.6%, and by 2026, prices on certain goods could drop by as much as 0.5 percentage points.
What does this mean for you?
If you live in Europe, this could mean more affordable shopping in the near future. While it’s not guaranteed, the possibility of lower prices is a relief for many people struggling with the cost of living.
The ECB is watching closely, though. If inflation dips too much, they might need to cut interest rates to keep the economy balanced.
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