Apple Earnings Preview: Can Services Keep the Growth Engine Running Amid Tariffs and iPhone Headwinds?
Apple ($AAPL.US$) reports its FY25 Q3 results this Thursday after market close, with investors watching whether Services growth can offset tariff pressures and sluggish iPhone demand in Greater China.
Street Expectations
Revenue: $88.96B (+3.7% YoY)
EPS: $1.42 (+1.5% YoY)
Gross Margin: 45.5%-46.5% (includes ~$900M in tariff-related costs)
3 Key Themes to Watch
1️⃣ iPhone Demand & Greater China Weakness
iPhone shipments in mainland China dropped ~9% YoY in the first five months of 2025, though declines narrowed to -4% in Apr-May.
Huawei’s 5G comeback has pressured Apple’s share, with Greater China revenue lagging global growth for 7 straight quarters.
Subsidy policies in China may provide a short-term boost, but competition remains intense.
2️⃣ Services Growth – The Core Valuation Driver
Services has delivered double-digit YoY growth for 6 straight quarters and is the company’s most stable revenue stream.
Concern: Apple hasn’t updated its “1 billion+ paid subscriptions” figure in 6 quarters and provided no specific Services growth guidance last quarter.
Investors want proof that Services can continue to power Apple’s valuation flywheel: Active Installed Base x Engagement.
3️⃣ Tariff Impact on Margins
Apple will book ~$900M in costs this quarter from U.S. tariffs.
Inventory was built up last quarter to mitigate disruption, but management’s comments on future trade policy risks will be critical.
Options Market Setup
High IV Percentile (60%): Traders expect a big post-earnings move.
Put/Call ratio 0.72: Leaning slightly bullish/neutral.
Expensive premiums may favor spread strategies over outright option buys.
Bottom Line
Apple’s Services momentum and ability to navigate tariffs will be front and center. With a current P/E of 33x (73rd percentile, 5Y range), expectations are high, and any weakness in iPhone or margin commentary could trigger volatility.
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