Global stocks climbed and the euro strengthened Monday after the U.S. secured a framework trade agreement with the EU, cutting the threatened tariffs in half and easing fears of a full-scale trade war.
🔹 Deal Details:
15% import tariff on most EU goods (down from the threatened 30%).
Europe agreed to buy U.S. energy and military equipment.
EU promised no retaliatory tariffs, a move analysts call “a big win for the U.S.”
🔹 Market Reaction:
S&P 500 futures: +0.4%
Nasdaq futures: +0.5%
European futures: +~1%
Euro: Firmed against USD, GBP, and JPY.
Asia: MSCI APAC index near a 4-year high; Nikkei slightly down after hitting a 1-year high last week.
Analysts say the deal with the EU, combined with the earlier Japan agreement and ongoing U.S.-China talks in Stockholm, has defused the risk of a prolonged global trade war ahead of the Aug 1 tariff deadline.
What’s Next:
Fed & BOJ Meetings: Both central banks expected to hold rates steady, but Powell’s comments on inflation and tariffs will be key.
Jobs & GDP Data: Could influence when the Fed starts cutting rates. ING predicts December for the first cut, possibly a 50 bps move.
Mega-Cap Earnings: Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon report this week; their outlook on AI and tariffs will guide market sentiment.
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