Stocks Pull Back, Bonds Rally
The S&P 500 broke its six-session winning run on Tuesday as traders turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations. Treasury bonds rallied, with 30-year yields falling 10 basis points following a strong $44 billion auction.
Tariff Truce in Focus
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said talks with China are ongoing to extend the current tariff truce, with President Trump making the final call. An extra 90-day extension is on the table. Despite signs of progress, markets showed little reaction, echoing the muted response to the recent U.S.-EU deal.
Data-Driven Market
Investors are shifting focus to hard economic data, including Wednesday’s Fed announcement, Friday’s jobs report, and upcoming inflation metrics. U.S. consumer confidence improved, while job openings declined slightly but remained at healthy levels.
Fed Outlook
The Fed has kept rates steady at 4.25%–4.5% since December. While no change is expected this week, investors are watching for clues about potential cuts later in 2025 if the economy slows further. Some policymakers are pushing for early action to support the labor market.Earnings and Market Sentiment
Big Tech earnings this week, including reports from Microsoft and Meta, are seen as critical for market direction. Despite the pullback, strategists from HSBC, Morgan Stanley, and UBS maintain a long-term bullish stance, citing strong corporate earnings, AI momentum, and easing tariff uncertainty.
Investment Perspective
Analysts caution that valuations remain high, making near-term volatility likely. However, many see any pullback as a buying opportunity, especially if economic and labor data confirm continued stability. Diversification and phased entry strategies are recommended to navigate short-term swings.
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