Singapore’s central bank is likely to keep its monetary policy unchanged this week, taking a cautious stance as it monitors the impact of looming U.S. tariffs on growth.
Survey Forecasts
14 of 19 economists in a Bloomberg poll expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to hold policy steady.
5 analysts, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, predict another easing.
The MAS, which manages policy via the exchange rate instead of interest rates, eased twice earlier this year to cushion against global tariff shocks.
Why Hold Policy Now?
Economic Resilience: Preliminary data showed Singapore avoided a technical recession in Q2, with growth driven by manufacturing, services exports, and construction.
Core Inflation: At 0.6% in June, price pressures remain subdued, supporting a wait-and-see approach.
Stable Outlook: Economists like Maybank’s Chua Hak Bin expect no further moves this year, citing a resilient economy and “benign but stabilising” inflation.
Tariff Uncertainty Still a Risk
Singapore faces a proposed 10% U.S. tariff, less than some Southeast Asian peers, but with trade equaling three times its GDP, the city-state remains highly exposed to any slowdown in global commerce.
7 of 9 economists surveyed see the MAS more likely to ease policy in 2025–2026 if tariffs bite into growth.
What’s Next?
Markets are watching for any hints that MAS could act again in October, especially if U.S. tariff impacts worsen or global demand slows.
Bottom Line: Singapore’s central bank is likely to pause after two cuts this year, banking on economic resilience while staying alert to risks from Trump’s trade policies and a fragile global outlook.
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