The US dollar index slipped 0.13% to 98.77 on Wednesday, ending a four-day winning streak as traders turned cautious before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The pullback comes after a sharp rally driven by the US-EU trade deal earlier this week.
Markets Await Powell and Jobs Data
Investors are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks amid ongoing tensions with the White House. A September rate cut remains the base case, but upcoming economic data, including Friday’s US jobs report, will be critical in shaping expectations. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at this meeting.
“Markets will be paying attention to Powell’s tone and any signs of internal dissent within the committee,” said Julien Lafargue of Barclays Private Bank.
Euro and Yen Move
The euro rose 0.15% to US$1.1562, bouncing from a one-month low. Despite gaining 11.9% year-to-date, it is on track for its first monthly decline since Dec 2024 as tariff impacts weigh on sentiment.
The yen strengthened 0.33% to 147.98 per dollar, with safe-haven flows amplified after a major earthquake off Russia’s Far East triggered tsunami warnings along Japan’s east coast.
Trade Deals Ease Global Jitters
The dollar’s retreat reflects easing fears of a full-blown trade war after the US struck deals with Japan and the EU, reducing tariffs and signalling renewed global engagement. Attention now shifts to US-China negotiations after both sides agreed to extend their 90-day tariff truce following “constructive” talks in Stockholm.
ECB Outlook Adjusts
Markets have pushed back expectations for the European Central Bank’s next rate cut to March 2026, following the US-Japan trade deal and the ECB’s recent hawkish tilt. ECB official Gabriel Makhlouf acknowledged the 15% US tariffs on EU goods will dent growth but said avoiding escalation offsets some of the damage.
Key Levels to Watch
Dollar Index: Support at 98.50, resistance at 99.15 (5-week high)
Euro/USD: Holding above US$1.15 critical to avoid deeper correction
USD/JPY: Traders watching BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments for hints of another rate hike this year
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