Apple (AAPL) heads into Thursday’s fiscal Q3 earnings with its stock down 14.4% YTD, lagging the S&P 500’s +8.6%and trailing fellow Mag-7 heavyweights like NVIDIA (+29.2%) and Microsoft (+21.9%).
Wall Street remains cautious, with 20 of 29 analysts trimming their estimates this quarter. Consensus expects EPS of $1.42 on $89B revenue, reflecting modest 1.4% earnings and 3.7% revenue growth year-over-year — soft compared to Apple’s historical performance.
Why the Weakness?
Slow adoption of generative AI relative to peers.
Lack of major product innovation in recent cycles.
Despite a $100B buyback authorization and higher dividends in May, investor sentiment hasn’t fully recovered.
The Technical Setup: Triple-Top or Breakout?
Apple’s chart paints a critical picture. Since May, the stock has formed a triple-top pattern around the $215 resistance level, signaling potential bearish reversal. However, AAPL is now testing that ceiling for a fourth time.
If it breaks above $215, the pattern fails, opening the door for a bullish breakout.
The $215 level also aligns with the 50% retracement of its Dec 2024–Apr 2025 sell-off, making it a key technical battleground.
Support zones include the 21-day EMA and 50-day SMA, where institutional buyers may step in.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Healthy, not overbought.
MACD: Bullish cross, with both 12- and 26-day EMAs above zero.
Histogram: Above zero — short-term positive.
Bottom Line
Apple’s Q3 earnings could determine whether the stock breaks out of its range or sinks further. A surprise beat coupled with any AI or product roadmap update could ignite a rally past $215. Conversely, a miss or muted guidance might confirm the triple-top and put more pressure on AAPL in the near term.

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