When former President Donald Trump threatened a 200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals, the natural expectation was a sell-off in healthcare stocks. Instead? The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index rose 1% over the past week, outperforming the S&P 500.
Why? Investors are betting the blow will be delayed, softened — or sidestepped entirely.
Trump’s Tariff Threat — But with a Long Runway
Trump proposed a 1 to 1.5-year grace period, which could effectively push implementation out to 2027, with companies possibly stockpiling enough to delay impact until 2028.
According to Jefferies:
“If firms stockpile effectively, the earnings hit could be milder than expected — even better than past projections for a 25% tariff.”
Pharma Already Taking Action
Two key moves are underway:
Stockpiling: Hormone treatment imports from Ireland more than doubled YoY (US$36 billion YTD).
U.S. Manufacturing Shift:
Eli Lilly: Announced a US$27B investment in U.S. production.
Merck: Plans to manufacture the next-gen Keytruda domestically.
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Makes It Easier
Trump’s economic policy is also carrot, not just stick:
Immediate deduction of R&D and equipment costs
Higher cap on interest deductibility
Net: Cheaper to build plants in the U.S., reducing the long-term tax burden
Minimal Earnings Impact?
Jefferies estimates a 1%–2% EPS hit to Merck in 2027–2028 — less than what a smaller 25% tariff would have done.
“The market's not shrugging it off. It’s factoring in the workarounds.”
M&A Activity Is Back
Dealmaking signals confidence:
Merck: US$10B acquisition of Verona Pharma
Eli Lilly: US$1.3B acquisition of Verve Therapeutics
The pharma industry seems to be adapting quickly — with or without tariffs.
Investor Takeaways
Don’t overreact to headlines — timing and implementation matter more than numbers.
Watch for U.S. manufacturing plays — companies moving early could benefit most.
Tariff-driven localization may reshape supply chains, possibly boosting select industrial and healthcare infrastructure names.
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