KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 8 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia closed almost flat on Tuesday as buying interest rotated away from index heavyweights towards smaller-cap construction stocks, with sentiment affected by geopolitical uncertainty, said an analyst. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) eased 0.39 of a point to 1,714.40 from Monday’s close of 1,714.79. The benchmark index opened 1.65 points lower at 1,713.14 and moved between 1,710.44 and 1,714.50 throughout the trading session. The broader market was almost evenly balanced, with decliners leading gainers 548 to 546, while 598 counters were unchanged, 1,107 were untraded and 25 were suspended. Turnover expanded to 4.13 billion units valued at RM3.14 billion from 3.60 billion units valued at RM2.45 billion on Monday.
Key Expectations Ahead of July 23 Earnings
Tesla is set to release its Q2 FY2025 earnings after market close on July 23, with investors closely watching whether energy storage growth and margin improvements can offset declining automotive sales.
Snapshot Estimates:
| Metric | Q2 2025E | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.36B | ↓ 12.3% |
| EPS | $0.32 | ↓ 23.4% |
4 Key Things to Watch
1️⃣ Vehicle Deliveries & Competition
Q2 Deliveries: 384,122 vehicles (↓13.5% YoY; ↑14% QoQ)
Q2 Production: 410,244 vehicles
Challenge: Tesla’s EV market share is eroding, with GM’s share growing to 12.9% in H1 2025.
🔧 Outlook hinges on whether Tesla can hit 1M+ deliveries in 2H25 and exceed 2024’s 1.79M total.
2️⃣ Automotive Gross Margin Under Pressure
Q1 2025: 16.3%, down from 18.3% in Q2 2024
Q2 2025 expected: ~16.4%
Margins remain under strain from pricing pressures and rising competition, though the Model Y refreshand higher CPI for new cars may help ASPs.
3️⃣ Energy Storage: Tesla’s New Growth Engine?
Q1 2025 Revenue Share: 14.1% of total
Margins: Higher than automotive
Shanghai Megapack Factory ramps up, using lower-cost CATL batteries—a margin booster
Tesla has begun exporting Megapacks across Asia-Pacific, with production booked into Q1 2026, making energy storage a near-term profit driver.
Guidance & Strategic Updates
After pulling back its 2025 guidance, Tesla is expected to:
Provide new vehicle delivery targets
Update Robotaxi and Optimus rollout plans
Address risks from EV tax incentive cuts and leasing loophole closure (starting Oct 1)
Options Market: Bracing for a Swing?
Heavy activity around $325 call options
Put/Call ratio: Neutral
Implied Volatility: Declining, but historically, Tesla stock has moved ~10% post-earnings
Investor Takeaway
| 🔼 Upside Catalysts | ⚠️ Key Risks |
|---|---|
| - Energy storage margin surge | - EV tax credits expiring |
| - Higher ASP from Model Y | - Weak Robotaxi/Optimus monetization |
| - Services revenue support | - Rising competition (GM, China) |
Valuation Watch
Tesla trades at a PE of >150x, pricing in aggressive expectations for future tech monetization (e.g., Robotaxi, Optimus).
Long-term bulls may focus on strategic transformation, but short-term traders should brace for volatility.
Comments
Post a Comment