Oil breaks US$100, Wall Street retreats and bond yields rise, inflation is becoming the market’s biggest risk again Global markets are starting Thursday in a more defensive position. Brent crude has broken above US$100 a barrel , U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher, and Wall Street fell for a third straight session as investors reassess whether central banks may need to keep tightening rather than easing. For Malaysian investors, the key chain today is increasingly clear: Oil → inflation → interest rates → bond yields → USD/MYR → Bursa valuations. 30-second market snapshot Market / Asset Latest 🇺🇸 S&P 500 7,636.36, -0.48% 🇺🇸 Dow Jones 52,380.66, -0.77% 🇺🇸 Nasdaq 26,253.34, -0.64% 🇲🇾 FBM KLCI 1,714.34, virtually flat 💵 USD/MYR ~4.06 🇺🇸 U.S. 10Y Treasury ~4.84% 🇺🇸 U.S. 2Y Treasury ~4.42% 🥇 Gold ~US$4,396/oz 🛢️ Brent crude US$101.21/bbl 🛢️ WTI crude US$96.05/bbl ₿ Bitcoin ~US$79,300 🇯🇵 Nikkei ~64,760, -0.6% this morning Brent jumped about 3.4% Wednesda...
Amid growing global trade tensions, Singapore has narrowly dodged a technical recession, thanks to a pre-tariff export rush and a rebound in construction.
Q2 GDP grew +1.4% quarter-on-quarter, beating estimates of 0.8% and reversing Q1’s -0.5% contraction.
On a year-on-year basis, growth came in at +4.3%, outperforming the median forecast of 3.6%.
What Drove the Rebound?
Front-Loaded Exports Before Aug 1 Tariffs
Manufacturing grew slightly at +0.1%, but was driven by firms rushing to ship out goods before US tariffs kick in.
Services sectors expanded +1.4% QoQ and +4.8% YoY, also linked to trade-related activity and logistics.
Public Sector Construction Boom
Construction rebounded +4.4% QoQ after a -1.8% dip in Q1, helping support domestic demand.
“The rebound is welcome, but headwinds are coming,” said Selena Ling, OCBC’s research head. “The key concern is post-August — once the tariff shield drops.”
Trump Tariff Impact: Unclear but Looming
Though Singapore received a relatively “mild” 10% US tariff, the country’s trade-reliant economy (exports = 3x GDP) remains highly vulnerable.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to keep policy steady at its next review, but downside risks persist, especially in H2 2025.
Key Growth Contributions in Q2 2025
| Sector | Q/Q Growth |
|---|---|
| Manufacturing | +0.1% |
| Construction | +4.4% |
| Services-Producing | +1.4% |
Outlook: Slower Growth Ahead
Government revised 2025 GDP forecast to 0%-2%, down from 4.4% last year.
Bloomberg Economics expects only 0.9% full-year growth due to:
Tariff headwinds
Export demand weakening post front-loading
Global economic uncertainties
“The road ahead is even more difficult as more US tariffs get implemented,” said Tamara Mast Henderson, Asean economist at Bloomberg Economics.
Investor Takeaways
✅ Q2 growth beat is temporary — driven by short-term export push
✅ H2 will be tougher, with tariffs, weaker demand, and construction plateauing
✅ MAS is unlikely to tighten — watch for signs of policy easing if momentum stalls
✅ Trade policy headlines will drive volatility — especially for Singapore-exposed ETFs and REITs
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