Samsung Faces a Reset Moment as AI Chip Race Heats Up
Samsung Electronics reported a 56% YoY drop in operating profit for the June quarter — its steepest decline since 2023 — highlighting deepening challenges in the global memory chip war and the rising cost of lagging behind in AI innovation.
Key Numbers:
Operating profit: 4.6 trillion won (~US$3.3 billion), below market estimates
Revenue: 74 trillion won (flat YoY)
Stock action: Volatile, but supported by a 3.9 trillion won buyback announcement
The sharp earnings drop came after inventory write-downs on unsold AI chips, particularly those meant for China — a market now constrained by US export curbs. Samsung's foundry division, which includes contract manufacturing of semiconductors, remained in the red for the third straight quarter.
Despite the dismal Q2 showing, analysts believe this may mark the bottom.
“Looking beyond the disappointing results… we expect a sequential recovery,” said Sanjeev Rana of CLSA Securities Korea.
The Core Problem: Falling Behind in the AI Chip Race
In the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) segment — critical for powering AI infrastructure — SK Hynix and Micron have outpaced Samsung. SK Hynix is currently Nvidia's go-to supplier for cutting-edge HBM4, with Samsung still waiting for certification on its 12-layer HBM3E.
According to Bernstein:
SK Hynix: 57% market share
Samsung: 27%
Micron: 16%
Samsung’s failure to secure Nvidia’s early approval has delayed its entry into the most profitable segment of AI chip demand.
Is There Light Ahead?
Samsung is pushing to start HBM4 mass production in 2H 2025, and has already secured orders from AMD, a signal that its roadmap isn't entirely broken.
In addition, the one-off inventory reset hints that Samsung is trying to clean the slate for a stronger second half.
Bloomberg Intelligence: “Samsung could lag SK Hynix in operating profit in 2H but 3Q could recover sequentially as seasonality kicks in.”
Investment Takeaway: Wait-and-Watch or Buy the Dip?
Headwinds:
Losing AI chip leadership
US-China tech export curbs
Soft earnings and visibility concerns
Tailwinds:
Stock buyback supports price
Potential AI demand recovery in 2H
HBM4 production timeline in place
For investors, the current correction may offer an entry point — but only with a medium-to-long term horizon and faith in Samsung’s rebound strategy in the AI semiconductor game. Keep an eye on HBM4 certifications, Nvidia partnerships, and Q3 earnings guidance for confirmation of a turnaround.
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