Global asset giant T. Rowe Price is bullish on Malaysia and Thailand bonds, citing potential for more rate cuts to drive returns—despite fading tailwinds from currency strength.
Key Takeaways:
- Malaysia: After its first policy cut in 5 years, Bank Negara may continue to ease—making longer-dated bonds attractive
- Thailand: Persistent deflation supports Thai debt, especially medium-term bonds
- "Currency gains may slow, but local bond returns still look strong" — Leonard Kwan, Portfolio Manager, T. Rowe Price
Year-to-Date Returns (Local Bonds):
Thailand: +13.8%
Malaysia: +10.2%
What’s Driving This View?
Slowing US rate cut hopes → Dollar rebound = less upside for FX
Despite that, Ringgit & Baht still up >5% in 2025
Strong domestic demand & easing inflation in Southeast Asia boost bond appeal
Strategy Shift Ahead?
Kwan also favors Indonesian bonds, expecting 2-3 more cuts despite the rupiah's underperformance (down -1.3% YTD).
The Smart Money's Move:
While others watch for the next US rate move, T. Rowe is positioning for local bond rallies in ASEAN. Time to look East?
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