Sector Rating: POSITIVE
MBSB IB maintains a POSITIVE call on the Malaysian property sector, citing improved sentiment, better loan approvals, and a favorable monetary environment following the recent OPR cut by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).
Top BUY Picks & Target Prices
| Company | Rating | Target Price | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mah Sing Group | BUY | RM1.49 | Focus on affordable housing; rate cut to boost first-time homebuyer demand |
| UOA Development | BUY | RM2.04 | 5.6% dividend yield; expanding into Johor |
| Matrix Concepts | BUY | RM1.65 | MVV City growth driver; ~6% yield; steady Bandar Sri Sendayan contributions |
Key Sector Insights
1. OPR Cut Spurs Affordability & Lending
The OPR cut is expected to improve loan eligibility, reduce interest costs, and reignite buying interest, particularly for mid-range residential units.
Loan approvals rose 5% MoM in May, with a higher approval ratio (46.4% vs. 44.3% in April).
Cumulative approved loans (Jan–May 2025): RM110.9 billion, showing sustained demand.
2. Residential Overhang Still Manageable
Q1 2025 overhang: 23,515 units, driven mainly by Sabah.
Kuala Lumpur overhang declined, while Johor and Perak saw slight increases.
Analysts view this as non-systemic and manageable amid improving fundamentals.
3. Valuation & Market Performance
KL Property Index: +8.4% since May but -6.9% YTD.
Sector trading at 0.66x P/B, aligned with historical average.
MBSB IB narrowed RNAV discounts by ~10%, reflecting better investor sentiment post-OPR cut.
Other Ratings
| Company | Rating | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Eco World Development | NEUTRAL | Downgraded due to limited upside post rally |
| S P Setia, Sunway, IOI Properties | NEUTRAL | Valuation revised upward to reflect sector optimism |
Sector Catalysts in 2H25
OPR Cut: Improves loan affordability and boosts housing demand
JS-SEZ & RTS Link: Boost Johor property market and cross-border economic activity
Budget 2026 (Oct): Possible consumption and housing incentives
Investor Takeaway
The combination of improved macroeconomic outlook, resilient loan approvals, and ongoing infrastructure development points to a healthier 2H25 for Malaysian residential property. Developers with strong affordable offerings, regional growth projects, and dividend visibility are poised to outperform.
Watchlist Top Picks: Mah Sing, UOA Development, Matrix Concepts
Comments
Post a Comment