Reserves Surge to 10-Year High
International reserves rose to USD120.6B, highest since Nov 2014.
Driven by FX revaluation gains and record gold holdings (USD4.1B, +7.8% MoM).
Ringgit Strength Dents Local Reserves Value
Despite USD gain, Ringgit reserves fell 3.8% MoM to RM510.1B.
Ringgit appreciated for 5th consecutive month, buoyed by weaker USD and trade sentiment.
Policy Rate Outlook: No Cut Yet
Kenanga sees BNM holding OPR steady despite market chatter of a rate cut.
GDP >4.0% and inflation risk cited as reasons to pause.
Rate remains attractive for bond inflows.
USDMYR Forecast
Year-end target at 4.08, backed by macro stability, FDI inflows, and potential Fed pivot.
Trade Tension Watch
US raised tariff on Malaysian goods to 25% (from 24%), effective Aug 1.
Malaysia still more favorable than peers, but Vietnam’s better tariff deal is a concern.
Outcome hinges on Malaysia’s negotiation success over the next 3 weeks.
Big Picture Insight
Gold and FX strength signal investor hedging amid geopolitical risk.
Malaysia well-positioned among emerging markets, but US trade policy and global slowdown remain risks.
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