Malaysia’s distributive trade slowed to a 9-month low in May, with year-on-year (YoY) growth easing to 4.4% (from 4.7% in April). Despite this moderation, the sales value reached an all-time high of RM154.3 billion, reflecting continued consumer resilience, buoyed by festive and seasonal spending.
Sector Highlights
Retail Trade (Still Strong)
Growth accelerated to 4.9% YoY, helped by:
Household equipment (+5.6%)
Specialised stores (+5.2%)
Cultural & recreation goods (+3.8%)
Motor Vehicles (Slowing)
Growth decelerated to 1.2% YoY (from 2.1%)
Weakness in:
Motorcycle repairs (+8.2%)
New vehicle sales (+0.2%)
Parts & accessories (+2.1%)
But monthly vehicle sales rose to 68,000 units (from 60,500)
Wholesale Trade (Weakening)
Marked a third straight month of decline: +4.7% YoY (from 5.5%)
Dragged by:
Agricultural raw materials
Machinery and equipment
Partially supported by:
Household goods
Food & beverages
Regional Context
Singapore: Retail sales rose 1.4% YoY on stronger car sales.
Hong Kong: Rebounded 2.4% YoY, first growth in over a year, led by department stores and apparel.
Outlook 2H25 & 2026: Stable but Cautious
Kenanga Research keeps its 2025 distributive trade growth target at 5.7%, underpinned by:
BNM’s OPR cut to 2.75%
Higher tourist arrivals
Minimum wage uplift
Government cash aid
Ongoing investment
But risks linger:
Sales & Services Tax (SST) expansion
RON95 fuel subsidy restructuring
External trade uncertainties
Key Takeaway
Malaysia’s consumer sector is showing resilience despite macroeconomic pressures. Retail remains the standout performer. Caution is warranted in the automotive and wholesale segments as growth moderates. Policy support and a favourable rate environment should underpin spending into 2H25, though external and tax-related risks need monitoring.
Investors may focus on retail-linked stocks, tourism-related sectors, and consumer staples, while keeping a watchful eye on fiscal policy shifts and inflation dynamics.
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