Luxury still turns heads—but investors haven’t been impressed lately.
While brands like Hermès and Prada remain culturally iconic, their stocks have taken a hit since the post-pandemic boom faded. The reason? Overpricing, weak Chinese demand, and new tariff threats.
Recent Performance (2-Year Declines)
LVMH: -40%
Kering (Gucci owner): -50%
Prada: -10%
Luxury companies raised prices during the COVID boom to stay exclusive, but inflation and changing consumer habits left aspirational shoppers behind.
What’s Changing Now?
High-income consumers are thriving thanks to strong markets and tax cuts.
Europeans feel more confident, and Chinese shoppers are cautiously spending again.
Luxury stock valuations are near 15-year lows, making them more attractive.
Bargain Valuations
Prada: 14x 2026 earnings
LVMH: <20x
Moncler, Richemont, Kering: ~20x
UBS says that when luxury trades this low, it outperforms 76% of the time (1–3 months) and 100% (6 months).
Where to Look (Stock Picks)
Hermès
Still the gold standard (Birkin, Kelly bags)
Forecast: +9% Q2 sales growth
Now worth more than LVMH
HSBC price target: €2,800 (+15%)
Richemont (Cartier)
Record-breaking December sales
Solid pricing power without hurting demand
Growth likely to continue
Burberry
+39% YTD (2025)
Back to classic British roots
New campaigns resonate
HSBC: “Worst is behind them”
Tapestry (Coach)
Successfully moved upmarket in the U.S.
Competing with LVMH, but still trading at just 17x forward earnings
Expert Insights
“The real luxury buyer is still spending. It’s the aspirational customer who’s pulled back.”— Gabriella Santaniello, A Line Partners
“It’s time to be less negative.”— Andrew Garthwaite, UBS
Final Thought
Luxury stocks have been punished, but many are now undervalued with stable fundamentals. For investors with a contrarian eye, it could be time to re-enter the space—carefully.
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