Iron ore prices ticked up again on Monday, continuing last week’s rally — just as traders brace for China’s GDP figures, due Tuesday.
The Numbers:
Iron ore futures hit US$99.90/tonne, up 0.4% in Singapore
Last week saw a 3.6% gain — the best weekly performance since January
Chinese steel exports hit a record high of 30.7 million tonnes in Q2
Iron ore imports surged 22% in June compared to May
What’s Driving the Market?
Speculation of stimulus: Hopes are growing that Beijing will support the ailing property sector and reduce industrial overcapacity — both crucial for iron ore demand
China GDP Watch: If Q2 GDP hits or slightly surpasses the 5% target, that’s good news — but it could dampen the urgency for additional stimulus from policymakers
Trade diplomacy: Australian mining giants like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue are in Beijing this week alongside PM Anthony Albanese, aiming to stabilize trade ties amid rising protectionism
Broader Commodity Trends:
Copper nudged up to US$9,675.50/tonne after a rough week (–2.1%) due to Trump’s new 50% import tariff
Aluminum slipped 0.9%
Money Master Take:
Iron ore is trying to bounce back after five straight monthly losses, and China’s data could make or break that rebound.
✅ If GDP exceeds expectations, it confirms real demand
❌ But if growth slows and stimulus doesn’t follow, prices could reverse quickly
Meanwhile, rising steel exports and strong import demand reflect that China’s industrial engine is still humming — at least for now.
Keep an eye on policy shifts post-GDP release, and watch whether stimulus hopes turn into actual supportfor real estate and infrastructure.
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