Southeast Asia’s worst-performing tech stock in 2025 — GoTo Gojek Tokopedia — may be primed for a rebound.After shedding nearly 90% of its value post-IPO and losing US$2.2 billion in market cap this year alone, analysts from JPMorgan, Aletheia Capital, and SGMC Capital are spotting signs of recovery.
“It has done all the right things, but the market seems to have punished the stock,” said Aletheia’s Nirgunan Tiruchelvam.
Fundamentals Turning Positive
Q1 adjusted EBITDA profit of 393B rupiah (~US$24.2M), reversing a loss of 101B rupiah YoY
Net revenue up 37%
Fintech business surged 90%, with 20M+ monthly active users
GoTo’s fintech arm — including its digital wallet and lending platform — is emerging as a dark horse in Southeast Asia's digital finance space. SGMC Capital sees potential for GoTo to rival SEA and Grab in momentum and scale.
Merger Rumors Remain
While Grab’s reported interest in acquiring GoTo continues to circulate, regulatory hurdles and market skepticismremain. But as JPMorgan noted, GoTo’s current share price seems to assume no merger at all, ignoring its improving fundamentals.
“At this valuation, the stock offers a compelling risk-reward,” said JPMorgan's Henry Wibowo.
The Bear Case
Morningstar, however, remains cautious, noting that GoTo no longer owns an e-commerce business and Grab’s growth trajectory is slightly ahead.
What to Watch
Q2 results later this month
Progress on cost-cutting and Alibaba Cloud migration
Fintech revenue growth
Merger developments with Grab
Investor Takeaway: GoTo is trading in the shadow of rumors, but its business performance is quietly improving. For investors with a long-term lens, this beaten-down tech play may offer a rebound story worth watching — with or without a merger catalyst.
Comments
Post a Comment